Affected States and Expected Rainfall
According to the National Weather Service (SMN), heavy rains are expected to persist in southern Mexico on Saturday, October 18, primarily affecting Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. This weather pattern is due to the interaction of several atmospheric systems causing unstable conditions across much of Mexico.
States with the Strongest Rainfall
- Chiapas: Very strong to locally intense rainfall (75 to 150 mm) is expected in the Sierra and Soconusco regions.
- Oaxaca and Guerrero: Foothill to very strong rainfall (50 to 75 mm) is forecasted along the coasts, central, and eastern parts.
Additionally, scattered showers with locally strong rainfall (25 to 50 mm) are anticipated in Michoacán, State of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, and Quintana Roo. Interval showers (5 to 25 mm) are expected in central and southeastern states like Mexico City, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán. Meanwhile, only isolated showers are forecasted in the north and northeast.
Interacting Meteorological Systems
The conditions will be generated by the combination of several phenomena:
- A low-pressure area with a potential for cyclone development off the southern Pacific coast, interacting with a monsoon trough that will bring ample moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
- Low-pressure channels over the country’s interior, along with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, will cause rainfall in western, central, and southeastern regions.
- In the northern part of the country, a mid-level to upper-level trough combined with a subtropical jet stream will result in strong wind gusts and scattered showers.
- By nighttime, a cold front will approach Mexico’s northern border.
Temperatures and Waves
The SMN predicts maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C in Sinaloa, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. Minimum temperatures could drop to -5 °C in the mountainous areas of Baja California, Sonora, Durango, and Chihuahua during Sunday morning.
Along the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, wave heights could reach 2 to 3 meters, so extra caution is advised for maritime activities.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Which states will be most affected by heavy rains? A: Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero are expected to experience the most significant rainfall.
- Q: What types of weather phenomena are causing these rains? A: The interaction of a low-pressure area with cyclone potential, a monsoon trough, low-pressure channels, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are contributing to these conditions.
- Q: What should people expect in terms of temperatures? A: Maximum temperatures will range from 35 to 40 °C in several southern states, while minimum temperatures could drop as low as -5 °C in mountainous regions of northern Mexico.
- Q: Are there any wave or maritime activity concerns? A: Wave heights of 2 to 3 meters are expected along the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, so extra caution is advised for maritime activities.
