Background and Relevance of the INE and Its Specialists
The Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) is Mexico’s independent electoral body responsible for organizing elections and ensuring their transparency, legality, and impartiality. Two esteemed statisticians, Dr. Michelle Anzarut Chacalo and Dr. Luis Felipe González Pérez, have been enlisted to estimate citizen participation in the upcoming judicial election on June 1, 2025.
The INE’s Sampling Plan
To estimate the citizen participation, INE will use a sample of 1,644 sectional polling stations (2% of the total) through a statistical exercise. This method aims to provide an estimation of voter turnout on election night, adhering to the principles of certainty, legality, independence, impartiality, objectivity, and maximum publicity.
The sampling design must ensure at least a 95% confidence level and the smallest possible margin of error. It will be based on the approved Nominal List.
For comparison, previous processes like the popular consultation (7% participation) and the revocation of mandate (18% participation) had similar sampling frameworks.
Consejeros’ Statements and Concerns
Consejero Jorge Montaño highlighted the growing public interest in knowing the voter turnout percentage for this judicial election. He emphasized the importance of timely dissemination of these data during the electoral process.
Consejera Carla Humphrey welcomed this mechanism but expressed concern over its late implementation, seven days before the election, without prior planning or budget allocation.
She criticized the lack of consultation with relevant technical areas, which often learn about projects only after they have been circulated among working groups or even commissions.
Respect for Electoral Silence
INE reminded all candidates and political actors that the electoral silence period begins on May 29, 2025, at midnight. During this time, any form of candidate promotion or dissemination is prohibited.
In response to queries from several candidates, including Paula María García Villegas Sánchez Cordero (daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Olga Sánchez Cordero) who sought permission to attend a recognition ceremony on May 29, 2025, INE clarified that it neither grants nor denies attendance permissions for events.
INE stressed that even the mere presence of a candidate constitutes propaganda, requiring citizens to maintain silence during the electoral process to reason their votes freely.
INE urged candidates to refrain from actions that might disrupt the electoral silence period.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the purpose of the INE’s sampling plan? The INE aims to estimate citizen participation in the judicial election using a statistical sample of 1,644 polling stations (2% of the total) to provide an accurate representation of voter turnout on election night.
- Who are the statisticians involved in this process? Dr. Michelle Anzarut Chacalo and Dr. Luis Felipe González Pérez, both experts in statistics, are responsible for designing the sampling scheme, establishing estimation models, selecting the sample, and conducting estimations on election night.
- When does the electoral silence period begin? The electoral silence period commences at midnight on May 29, 2025, prohibiting any form of candidate promotion or dissemination until the election concludes.
- What concerns have been raised about the late implementation of this mechanism? Consejera Carla Humphrey expressed concern over the delayed implementation of this mechanism, seven days before the election, without prior planning or budget allocation. She also criticized the lack of consultation with relevant technical areas.
