Introduction
Mexico and the world are grappling with a structural water crisis that goes beyond mere water stress or drought, now characterized as “water bankruptcy,” according to the Institute of Water, Environment and Health at the United Nations University (UNU-INWEH). This warning comes as national data confirm a sustained decrease in rainfall across much of the country over the past three decades, particularly in the north and northwest.
The Global Water Bankruptcy Report
According to the Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era report, the world has entered a post-crisis phase where overexploitation and degradation of hydrological systems have led to irreversible losses in the natural capital that sustains water. Mexico and the United States are among countries where this phenomenon is evident, causing structural impacts in regions like the southwestern US and northern Mexico.
The report highlights cases such as the Colorado River basin, which has persistently exceeded its natural recovery capacity, resulting in mandatory water cuts. A notable example is Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the US and a critical water source for Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico. Its levels critically dropped to their lowest point since the 1930s in July 2022, despite emergency measures implemented since 2020.
Moreover, the report emphasizes the phenomenon of land subsidence due to overexploitation of aquifers, a clear sign of water bankruptcy. As explained, the ground in Mexico City sinks by an average of 25 centimeters per year due to excessive groundwater pumping. Once aquifers compact, their storage capacity is lost permanently.
Declining Rainfall in Mexico
Official data from Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA) show a significant monthly rainfall decrease over the past three decades. Comparing 1990 records to 2024, the national average annual accumulation dropped from 877.9 mm to 735.7 mm, a decrease of 142.2 mm or 16.2%.
Of the 32 entities in Mexico, 20 registered a negative percentage change in rainfall.
- Baja California Sur leads with a 75.3% reduction, followed by Sonora (-54.5%), Chihuahua (-53.6%), Sinaloa (-52.3%), and Durango (-49.3%).
- Severe declines are also observed in Baja California (-41.2%), San Luis Potosí (-38.9%), Zacatecas (-39.5%), Nayarit (-35.2%), Hidalgo (-31.1%), and Coahuila (-30.3%).
In contrast, 12 states show an increase in rainfall levels during the same period. These include Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Veracruz, Michoacán, Guerrero, Yucatán, Colima, Quintana Roo, and Morelos. Notable increases are seen in Morelos (>100%), Quintana Roo (43.6%), Colima (38%), Yucatán (22.9%), and Veracruz (16%), indicating regionally differing climatic behavior.
Kaveh Madani, the report’s lead author and director of UNU-INWEH, states that these cases reflect a new reality: “Many critical water systems are already bankrupt. It’s not a temporary issue but a state from which we cannot return to historical levels.” He emphasizes that even wet years do not signify recovery if long-term extraction continues to exceed natural replenishment.
Facing this scenario, the UN calls for abandoning crisis management logic and moving towards water bankruptcy management, accepting stricter limits on water use.
Arctic Air Affects Large Parts of Mexico
According to Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the National Coordination of Civil Protection (CNPC), an arctic air mass will maintain a very cold to freezing environment in the Northern Plateau, Central Plateau, east, and southeast, including the Valley of Mexico, with morning fog banks and a strong to intense “North” event in the Gulf of Mexico, Isthmus, and Tehuantepec Gulf, as well as the Yucatan Peninsula.
For January 26 and 27, minimum temperatures are expected to be -15°C to -10°C in the mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, and Coahuila; -10°C to -5°C in the mountainous regions of Baja California, Sonora, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas; and -5°C to 0°C in elevated areas of Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.
The SMN reports that the interaction of the winter storm with an atmospheric river caused snow or freezing rain in the mountainous areas of Sonora and Chihuahua and rainfall below freezing in Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and San Luis Potosí. This phenomenon increased the risk on roads and highways due to pavement freezing.
Though the system began moving towards central US on Sunday afternoon, its residual effects will continue generating extremely low temperatures.
