Mexico’s Five Most Violent States and the Reasons Behind Their High Crime Rates

Introduction

Despite Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration boasting a national homicide rate of 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025 – the lowest since 2015 – certain regions still grapple with high crime rates. A recent attack following a local football game in Guanajuato, central Mexico, highlighted the ongoing criminal violence.

The Attack in Guanajuato

According to initial investigative findings, at least five of the eleven victims were members of a security group linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The attack was reportedly carried out by a group associated with the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, stemming from a dispute between these criminal organizations.

Sheinbaum’s Security Strategy

President Sheinbaum attributes the decline in national homicide rates to her administration’s security strategy. However, these rates remain significantly higher than 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants in several of Mexico’s 32 states, which are affected by cartel violence and regional group conflicts.

The Five Most Violent States in 2025

Strategically located along drug routes to the United States or boasting prosperous industries that attract extortionists, these five Pacific Coast or nearby states have the highest homicide rates:

1. Colima
• Homicide rate: 81.08 per 100,000 inhabitants
• Colima, a Pacific Coast state with a significant port (Manzanillo) and diverse industries, faces extortion from criminal groups targeting legal and illegal businesses.
2. Morelos
• Homicide rate: 54.42 per 100,000 inhabitants
• Situated centrally in Mexico, Morelos is part of a corridor linking the Pacific coast’s Guerrero region, crucial for drug and weapon trafficking.
• The region also experiences high extortion levels, according to Mexican media reports.
3. Sinaloa
• Homicide rate: 52.17 per 100,000 inhabitants
• Located on Mexico’s Pacific Coast, Sinaloa has been torn by internal conflict within the Sinaloa Cartel since September 2024, resulting in hundreds of deaths and civilian fear.
• The conflict began after the capture of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a historical Sinaloa Cartel leader, who was betrayed and taken to the United States in 2024 by his ex-partner “Chapo” Guzmán’s son.
4. Baja California
• Homicide rate: 41.48 per 100,000 inhabitants
• Baja California hosts major border cities with the United States, such as Tijuana and Mexicali, which are close to other drug trafficking hubs like San Luis Río Colorado in the border state of Sonora.
• Multiple local groups collaborate with larger criminal organizations, creating a fragmented and competitive crime market.
5. Guanajuato
• Homicide rate: 38.84 per 100,000 inhabitants
• Guanajuato is a significant industrial hub, including vital automotive export sectors. Criminal violence, like the massacre of 11 people at a football field, results from the struggle between the local Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel group and the powerful CJNG for strategic control.
• Security analyst David Saucedo explains that Guanajuato’s central location makes it a crucial link between Pacific South ports and border cities.

Key Questions and Answers

• What is the current national homicide rate in Mexico? The national homicide rate is 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025.
• Which states have the highest homicide rates in Mexico? Colima, Morelos, Sinaloa, Baja California, and Guanajuato have the highest homicide rates.
• Why are these states experiencing high crime rates? These states’ strategic locations along drug routes or their prosperous industries attract criminal groups engaging in extortion and violence.