1. Trade Tariffs and Global Trade War
Since assuming his second presidential term on January 20, 2025, Donald Trump has initiated an international trade war by announcing tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. His primary goal is to strengthen the U.S. economy and establish itself as the world’s leading power.
2. Migration and Drug War to Pressure Mexico
Thousands of migrants from Honduras, Guatemala, Venezuela, and even Mexican nationals became stranded at the U.S.-Mexico border after Trump canceled asylum programs and launched a campaign of raids and deportations.
The U.S. government has pressured Mexico to accept and receive deportees, avoiding tariffs. Additionally, they deployed thousands of soldiers to secure the border and prevent the crossing of migrants and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.
- In response to these pressures and tariff threats, in early February 2025, the Mexican government, led by Claudia Sheinbaum, deployed 10,000 military personnel along the U.S. border to curb drug trafficking.
- Trump’s administration has accused Mexico of having an “alliance” with drug cartels.
3. Extradition of Criminals Sought by the U.S.
By late February, Mexico responded to one of the U.S.’s demands by extraditing narcotraffickers wanted by U.S. authorities, presumably in response to Trump’s call for better efforts against organized crime and curbing drug trafficking, including fentanyl.
- According to the Organismo Administrativo Desconcentrado de Prevención y Reinserción Social, between October 2024 and August 2025, Mexico conducted 20 formal extraditions. The highest numbers were in February (9 extradited) and August (7 extradited). Additionally, there were two large-scale direct handovers of prisoners, known as “expulsions,” totaling 29 individuals in February and 26 in August.
- Among the 29 prisoners accused of narcotrafficking and homicide handed over in February 2025 was Rafael Caro Quintero, founder of the disbanded Guadalajara Cartel and one of the most wanted criminals by the U.S. since the 1980s, accused of murdering DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena.
4. Water Crisis Between Mexico and the U.S.
In March, Trump used a new tactic by threatening tariffs on Mexico due to its water debt with the northern neighbor, according to a 1944 mutual supply agreement.
Mexico attributed the water shortage to an extraordinary drought, eventually reaching a new agreement and time extension.
On December 12, Mexico and the U.S. agreed to release 249 million cubic meters of water, a volume made possible by the recent rains.
5. Bye-Bye, Gulf of Mexico
President Trump managed to get President Claudia Sheinbaum involved in statements about renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
In May 2025, Sheinbaum reminded Google to only comply with the renaming decree for the Gulf of Mexico within the U.S. continental part.
6. Screw Worm Affects Mexican Livestock
Since May of the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has taken action against Mexico by halting the importation of cattle and beef after detecting screw worm cases. This has forced Mexican authorities to implement extraordinary measures to stop the worm’s spread or face closure of the market for this food.
- To address the issue immediately, the National Service of Health, Safety, and Food Quality deployed specialized technical personnel to strengthen surveillance and detection of infected livestock, as well as the deployment of sterile flies for biological control and to combat this pest.
- According to the latest technical report from the Group of Agricultural Market Advisors (GCMA) published in early January 2026, the accumulated number of screw worm cases in Mexico is 13,217, primarily concentrated in Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Veracruz. This regional distribution has impacted the closure of the commercial border for Mexican livestock, resulting in estimated losses of $1.3 billion in foreign exchange and retention of over one million heads that couldn’t be placed in the external market.
7. Distribution of Mexican Oil to Cuba
After the U.S. took control of Venezuelan oil following Nicolas Maduro’s arrest, Trump warned that the flow of crude and money from Venezuela to Cuba would be curtailed. As a result, Mexico became an important oil supplier for the Caribbean island, potentially straining relations once again.
In response to rumors that Mexico was “donating” oil to Cuba or distributing more than agreed in international treaties, President Claudia Sheinbaum denied these claims and extinguished rumors of conflict with the U.S. government.
She assured that Mexico acts with sovereignty, and the oil shipment to Cuba is part of humanitarian aid despite investigations revealing an increase in shipments with sanctioned vessels by Washington.
