Overview of the Weather Situation
The Mexican National Weather Service (SMN) issued a warning on Sunday about a low-pressure area in the South Pacific that could develop into the first tropical cyclone of the season, named “Alvin,” within the next few days. Although it does not directly affect Mexico’s territory yet, its effects are already causing heavy rainfall in southern regions, particularly Chiapas and Oaxaca.
Expected Weather Conditions
- Heavy rainfall and strong showers are expected in northeastern Mexico (Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas) due to the interaction between a dry line and the low-pressure system.
- Intense winds with possible formation of waterspouts are anticipated in the same northeastern states.
- Across western, central, eastern, southern, and southeastern regions of Mexico, including the Valley of Mexico, low-pressure channels combined with atmospheric instability and moisture inflow from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea will generate heavy to very heavy rainfall.
Probability of Tropical Cyclone Alvin’s Formation
According to the SMN, there is a 10% probability of cyclonic development within 48 hours, with Alvin located 695 km southwest of the Suchiate River in Chiapas. Although it is under observation, its parallel movement along Mexico’s coastlines could intensify rainfall throughout the week.
Meanwhile, a prolonged heatwave is expected across much of the country, with temperatures potentially exceeding 40 °C in states like Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Campeche. Elevated swells are also forecast for the southern Pacific coast.
Monday and Tuesday Forecast
- Monday, May 26: Very heavy rainfall is expected in Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Possible waterspouts are forecast for Coahuila, with wind gusts reaching up to 80 km/h in northern regions.
- Tuesday, May 27: Heavy rainfall will intensify in central and southern areas, with significant accumulations in Puebla, Veracruz, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. The low-pressure system is expected to move over the Pacific coastline, enhancing precipitation potential.
Key Risks and Precautions
Heavy rainfall may be accompanied by thunderstorms, hail, rising river and stream levels, landslides in low-lying areas, and increased risk of wildfires due to strong winds. Fallen trees and light structures are possible, along with heightened fire danger.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current weather situation? A: The Mexican National Weather Service (SMN) is monitoring a low-pressure area in the South Pacific that could develop into Tropical Cyclone Alvin, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to northeastern Mexico.
- Q: What are the expected weather conditions? A: Heavy rainfall, strong showers, intense winds, and possible waterspouts are anticipated in various regions of Mexico due to low-pressure systems and moisture inflow from surrounding bodies of water.
- Q: What is the probability of Tropical Cyclone Alvin’s formation? A: There is a 10% probability of cyclonic development within 48 hours, with Alvin currently located southwest of Chiapas.
- Q: What are the forecasted conditions for Monday and Tuesday? A: Heavy rainfall is expected in central and southern Mexico, with possible waterspouts in Coahuila and strong winds in northern regions on Monday. By Tuesday, rainfall is expected to intensify further across central and southern areas.
- Q: What risks should people be aware of? A: Heavy rainfall may cause thunderstorms, hail, rising river levels, landslides, and increased wildfire risk. Fallen trees and light structures are possible due to strong winds.
