Water Agreement Reduces Tension, Not Impacts: Experts Weigh In on Mexico’s Commitment to US

Web Editor

February 4, 2026

a train is going over a dam wall in the desert, with a lake below it and a city in the distance, Elb

Background and Key Players

Mexico recently reached an agreement to fulfill its water delivery commitments to the United States under the 1944 Water Treaty amidst political and commercial pressure. This new arrangement marks a more stringent approach to international hydrological obligations, according to experts consulted by El Economista.

Key Figures

  • Hugo Rojas: Former director of the National Association of Water and Sanitation Companies (ANEAS), who provided insights into the negotiation process.
  • Francisco Bustamante: President of the Mexican Association for Proper Hydration, who addressed the agreement’s impact on human consumption and agriculture.
  • Francisco Núñez Escudero: Head of the Water Sector in Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy, who discussed the uneven impact on various regions and industries.

Negotiation Context and Agreement Details

The negotiation took place under the threat of tariffs linked to non-compliance with the treaty, compelling Mexico to reach an agreement. Hugo Rojas, ANEAS’s former director, described the outcome as positive but noted that it “could have been much worse.”

Mexico had a deficit from the previous cycle, and without the newly announced understanding, the country would have had to deliver approximately 3.239 billion cubic meters annually, averaging around 650 million cubic meters per year.

The agreement maintains an annual delivery of roughly 432 million cubic meters, corresponding to a normal cycle, while the deficit will be addressed based on water availability within Mexico.

Impact on Agriculture and Mining

Francisco Bustamante, president of the Mexican Association for Proper Hydration, dismissed direct effects on human consumption, stating that volumes allocated to the population are limited and there are mechanisms to safeguard urban supplies.

However, he warned that the primary impact will be on the agricultural sector. The mining sector, particularly in Chihuahua and Coahuila due to high water consumption, will also be affected. Bustamante suggested that this impact could be mitigated by relocating operations to other areas.

Francisco Núñez Escudero, responsible for the Water Sector in Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy, emphasized that the water delivery impact will not be uniform, as it depends on reservoirs and specific points designated for treaty compliance.

Núñez Escudero pointed out that similar situations have occurred during previous drought periods, such as at the start of the 2000s, when Mexico had to fulfill treaty obligations under more unfavorable hydrological conditions than the current ones.

Historical Context and Potential Solutions

During past drought periods, one viable solution when the volume to be delivered exceeded actual availability was implementing subsidy programs for farmers to reduce or temporarily suspend planting, as direct monitoring of water consumption across vast territories proved unfeasible.