Overview of the Situation
The housing market in Mexico is experiencing a downturn due to economic uncertainty, with sales declining by up to 30% over the past year, as reported by the Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios (AMPI).
Key Factors Affecting the Housing Market
Enrique de Jesús Trava Griffin, the Communication Director of AMPI Nacional, highlighted that 2024 was a particularly challenging year for the housing sector due to both external and internal factors that have limited buyer confidence and capital circulation.
- External Factors: The economic relationship between Mexico and the United States has created a cautious investment environment.
- Internal Factors: Although the narrative against investment lacks solid foundations, 2026 is projected to have favorable conditions.
Interest Rates and Their Impact
Another factor hindering the housing market recovery is the behavior of interest rates. Although financing costs have shown significant reductions, the expected market reactivation has not materialized.
- In 2024, the interest rate was at 11.25%, and it dropped to 7% in 2025.
- Despite the natural expectation for people to spend more, investment remains stagnant due to uncertainty.
However, Griffin anticipates that the base interest rate could see additional cuts in 2026, potentially reaching 6.5%. This would create an opportunity to stimulate investment and facilitate housing placement, particularly among those with available capital.
AMPI’s Outlook for 2026
Despite the challenging environment, AMPI projects a gradual housing sales recovery in 2026, driven by the demographic bonus. External pressures affect the right to housing, but Mexico maintains a solid base of productive-age population requiring housing solutions.
The inventories generated in 2024 that did not sell will be sold this year, and AMPI aims to capitalize on this opportunity.
Institutional Strategy
In this context, the incoming president of AMPI Nacional, Jenny Althair Rivas Padill, announced a two-year plan (2026-2027) to strengthen the housing sector.
- Strategic Alliance: Collaboration with the National Association of Real Estate Agents (NAR) in the United States.
- Professionalization: Emphasis on elevating the professionalism of the real estate sector.
Rivas stated, “AMPI is a key player in the international real estate scene. By 2025, we have trained 45,000 individuals, and in 2026, our focus is on families. Our mission is to dignify real estate practice, promote sector professionalization, and foster investment in Mexico.”
