Sector Overview and Current State
The Mexican real estate sector concluded 2025 with a slow pace, marked by reduced economic dynamism and limited new housing supply. However, the outlook for 2026 anticipates a growth phase in market value, albeit with marginal increases in transactions.
Projected Growth
According to Realty One Baja & Pacific, the value of real estate sales could reach up to $30 billion in the coming year, with annual growth between 4% and 6%. This growth is primarily attributed to the rise in housing prices, while transaction volume advances less than 2%.
Hernández Sotelo, Director of Realty One Baja & Pacific, stated:
“We are moving towards a more rational and professional market with better-informed buyers and projects that must clearly differentiate themselves through location, design, and real value. Opportunities will no longer lie in speculation but in the long term.”
Housing Shortage
In 2025, residential transactions were around $28 billion, equivalent to approximately 500,000 million pesos, according to the firm’s analysis. Used housing accounted for about 63% of operations, reflecting a shift in market preferences.
“The market was sustained more by inventory scarcity than by an increase in sales volume; this explains why we saw nearly 6% appreciation nationwide, even though the number of housing units marketed grew by only around 3%,” explained Alfredo Hernández Sotelo, Director of Realty One Baja & Pacific.
Impact of the 2026 World Cup
At a regional level, Monterrey and Guadalajara remain leading cities in the real estate sector, especially with industrial growth and the arrival of the 2026 World Cup.
Nuevo León accounts for about 12% of the country’s housing production, with its capital closing 2025 with approximately 43,000 transactions and an average appreciation of nearly 9.9%.
For 2026, price growth is expected to be around 9%, with some zones potentially seeing increases of up to 12% in medium and medium-high housing linked to business relocation (nearshoring).
“Unlike 2025, the growth in 2026 will be more structural and less speculative in Monterrey; infrastructure will be the primary decision factor for buyers and investors,” Hernández Sotelo explained.
The expansion of the Metro, public transport modernization, and road improvements related to preparations for the 2026 FIFA World Cup amplify housing development potential and drive rent increases in areas near the BBVA Stadium, as well as in municipalities like Guadalupe and San Pedro Garza García.
Guadalajara’s Potential
In Guadalajara, the market showed average appreciation of 8.5% and nearly 38,000 housing units marketed in 2025.
For 2026, an increase in transactions is anticipated, reaching around 40,000, with sales volume close to $120 billion pesos.
Hernández Sotelo noted that the expansion of Tren Ligero lines 3 and 4, airport connection projects, and the regeneration of consolidated areas drive vertical developments, mixed-use projects, and higher inventory absorption in well-located areas.
This is further supported by Guadalajara’s consolidation as a technology and corporate hub, along with the temporary boost from the World Cup in hospitality and short-term rental housing segments.
“The scarcity of well-located offerings will continue to push prices up in the real estate sector, albeit at a more moderate pace. 2026 will be a crucial year for those who invest in solid projects with long-term vision,” Hernández Sotelo concluded.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected growth in the Mexican real estate sector by 2026? The value of real estate sales could reach up to $30 billion, with annual growth between 4% and 6%, primarily driven by rising housing prices.
- What factors contributed to the slow pace of the real estate sector in 2025? The slow pace was due to reduced economic dynamism, limited new housing supply, and a shift in market preferences towards used housing.
- How will the 2026 World Cup impact the real estate sector in Monterrey and Guadalajara? The World Cup is expected to drive infrastructure-based growth, leading to increased housing demand and rents in areas near stadiums and transportation hubs.
- What is the expected appreciation in housing prices for 2026? Price growth is anticipated to be around 9%, with some zones potentially seeing increases of up to 12% in medium and medium-high housing linked to business relocation.
