Overview of the Mexican Real Estate Market in 2025
The Mexican real estate sector concluded 2025 with a slow pace, characterized by reduced economic dynamism and limited new housing supply. However, the outlook for 2026 anticipates a growth phase in market value, albeit with marginal increases in transactions.
Projected Growth in Real Estate Sales Value
According to estimates by Realty One Baja & Pacific, the value of real estate sales could reach up to $30 billion in the upcoming year, with annual growth ranging from 4% to 6%. This projected growth is primarily attributed to the rise in housing prices, while transaction volume advances less than 2%.
“We are moving towards a more rational and professional market, with better-informed buyers and projects that must clearly differentiate themselves through location, design, and real value. Opportunities will no longer lie in speculation but in the long term,” stated Hernández Sotelo, Director of Realty One Baja & Pacific.
Housing Shortage
In 2025, residential transactions amounted to approximately $28 billion, equivalent to around 500,000 million pesos, according to the firm’s analysis. Used housing accounted for about 63% of operations, reflecting a shift in market preferences.
“The market was sustained more by inventory scarcity than by an increase in sales volume; this explains why we saw nearly 6% appreciation nationwide, even as the number of housing units marketed grew by only about 3%,” noted Alfredo Hernández Sotelo, Director of the firm.
Impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
At a regional level, Monterrey and Guadalajara remain leading cities in the real estate sector, particularly with industrial growth and the approaching 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Nuevo León accounts for around 12% of the country’s housing production, with its capital city closing 2025 with approximately 43,000 transactions and an average appreciation of nearly 9.9%.
For 2026, price growth is expected to be around 9%, with certain zones potentially seeing increases of up to 12% in medium and medium-high housing linked to business relocation (nearshoring).
“Unlike 2025, the growth in 2026 for Monterrey will be more structural and less speculative; infrastructure will be the primary decision-making factor for buyers and investors,” explained Hernández Sotelo.
The expansion of the Metro, public transport modernization, and road improvements related to FIFA World Cup 2026 preparations amplify the potential for residential development and drive rent increases in areas near BBVA Stadium, as well as in municipalities like Guadalupe and San Pedro Garza García.
Guadalajara’s Potential
In Guadalajara, the market saw average appreciation of 8.5% and nearly 38,000 housing units marketed in 2025.
For 2026, transaction growth is anticipated to reach around 40,000, with sales volume nearing 120,000 million pesos.
“The expansion of Tren Ligero lines 3 and 4, airport connection projects, and the regeneration of consolidated areas are driving vertical developments, mixed-use projects, and increased inventory absorption in well-located areas. Additionally, the city’s consolidation as a technology and corporate hub, along with temporary boosts from the World Cup in hospitality and short-term rental segments, further stimulate the market,” said Hernández Sotelo.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the projected real estate sales value for 2026? Realty One Baja & Pacific estimates that the value of real estate sales could reach up to $30 billion in 2026.
- What factors contribute to the projected growth? The primary drivers are rising housing prices and limited new housing supply, with transaction volume advancing at a slower pace.
- Which cities are expected to see significant growth in the real estate sector? Monterrey and Guadalajara are anticipated to experience substantial growth, fueled by industrial development and the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- How will infrastructure and the World Cup impact housing prices? Infrastructure improvements and World Cup preparations are expected to amplify residential development potential, driving rent increases in targeted areas.
- What role does Guadalajara play in the real estate market? Guadalajara is expected to see significant growth, supported by transportation expansions, airport connection projects, and its establishment as a technology and corporate hub.
