Introduction
The Mexican housing market is experiencing growth in value, but not in inclusivity. Limited supply, restricted credit access, and informal employment keep millions outside the formal housing system.
The Ajolote-Unicorn Metaphor
In the imaginary fauna of Mexico’s housing market, a peculiar creature has emerged: the ajolote-unicorn. The ajolote represents resilience in low-oxygen environments (a housing supply that has been insufficient for years), while the unicorn symbolizes double-digit returns. This creature thrives in the housing deficit, with only 128,000 formal housing units initiated in 2024 for a country requiring double that amount.
The Reality of the Housing Market
Between 2019 and 2024, housing prices increased by over 50%, and they continue to rise at 6%-7% annually in 2025, nearly double the inflation rate. This growth is not due to speculative bubbles but rather persistent shortages that transform demand spikes into immediate price pressure. The recent 9.5% interest rate cut by Banxico only softens the annual total cost of home loans to 11%, which is insufficient for informal income households to enter the market.
Housing Credit Distribution
Currently, 62% of mortgages are allocated to used housing, while new inventory has contracted by another 12% annually. Online search portals confirm this trend, with declining active listings and growing interest in affordable housing options. Regions like Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo see double-digit increases, while the Greater Mexico City area moderates its growth to 6%-7%, still outpacing real wage increases.
Addressing the Housing Crisis
The challenge is not to pursue the ajolote-unicorn but to make housing access less of a privilege. This requires urbanized land with transportation and services for socially-oriented and traditional projects, hybrid financial instruments recognizing mixed incomes (formal-informal credits, rent-to-own options, or second-property guarantees), and linking housing policy with labor formalization incentives. Transparent data is crucial to prevent the metaphor from becoming dogma.
Key Questions and Answers
- Why is affordable housing still a mirage? The limited supply, restricted credit access, and informal employment keep millions outside the formal housing system.
- What changes are needed to make affordable housing a reality? More urbanized land with services, inclusive credit, effective formalization, and transparent data are essential.
- How does the housing market’s growth impact different regions? Regions like Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo see double-digit increases, while the Greater Mexico City area moderates its growth to 6%-7%, still outpacing real wage increases.
