Introduction
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its 2025 Global Trade Report, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform international trade. The report projects that global flows of goods and services could increase by up to 40% by 2040 if economies successfully close their digital divides. However, the WTO warns that unequal adoption of AI technologies and growing trade restrictions could exacerbate the concentration of benefits in high-income countries.
Current State of AI and Trade
According to the report, the trade in AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors, critical raw materials, and intermediate software, reached $2.3 trillion in 2023. Nevertheless, access to these goods remains limited for many low-income countries, with tariffs exceeding 45% in some cases.
“AI has immense potential to reduce trade costs and boost productivity. However, access remains highly unequal,” stated Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, during the report’s launch.
Expectations and Recommendations
The report explores the interconnections between trade, development, and technological governance. It suggests that international trade can facilitate inclusive AI adoption when countries invest in human capital, lower tariff barriers, and actively engage in multilateral agreements like the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS).
The report also examines future scenarios, stating that if low- and middle-income economies reduce their digital gap with advanced economies by 50%, they could see income increases of up to 15%. However, without coordinated action, AI could further widen economic disparities both between and within countries.
The WTO emphasizes its role in designing trade policies that prevent regulatory fragmentation and promote affordable access to emerging technologies.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main focus of the WTO’s 2025 Global Trade Report? The report highlights the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to transform international trade and projects a 40% increase in global flows of goods and services by 2040 if digital divides are closed.
- What challenges does the report identify regarding AI and trade? The report warns of unequal adoption of AI technologies and growing trade restrictions, which could exacerbate the concentration of benefits in high-income countries.
- How can trade facilitate inclusive AI adoption? The report suggests that international trade can support inclusive AI adoption when countries invest in human capital, lower tariff barriers, and engage in multilateral agreements like the ITA and GATS.
- What role does the WTO play in addressing AI-related trade issues? The WTO emphasizes its role in designing trade policies that prevent regulatory fragmentation and promote affordable access to emerging technologies.
