Introduction
The Mexican national team, under the guidance of Javier Aguirre, has averaged 1.3 goals per match in the current era. However, a deeper analysis reveals that the team’s scoring issues extend beyond just the forwards’ performance.
Recent Performance and Concerns
Despite a recent invincible tour in Central and South America, the team’s performance has failed to impress fans and experts due to a persistent scoring shortage. They managed 1-0 wins against Panama and Bolivia, with the former being a result of an own goal and the latter generating only three shots on target, according to Goles y Cifras, a specialized statistics website.
In a broader perspective, Mexico has scored more than one goal in only two of their last ten matches (2-1 against the USA and 2-2 against South Korea in July and September 2025, respectively).
Javier Aguirre’s Tenure and Comparison with Predecessors
Aguirre is currently in his third stint with Mexico, following the World Cups in Corea-Japón 2002 and Sudáfrica 2010. He took charge in 2024 and is confirmed to lead the team in the 2026 World Cup, which Mexico will co-host with the USA and Canada.
Since his return, Mexico has played 26 matches with an average of 1.3 goals per game, which is below the recent predecessors’ averages: 1.4 for Jaime Lozano, 1.4 for Diego Cocca, and 1.8 for Gerardo ‘Tata’ Martino.
Expert Analysis
Luis Fernández, CEO of Under Data, a data scouting consultancy for football, explains to El Economista that the scoring issue is multifactorial.
“There have been many eras when the Mexican national team reached the opposing goal frequently but lost due to failing to convert opportunities. Now, they’re not even generating much,” Fernández says.
“The team needs to find a set of players who can aid in offensive play generation. Not just those arriving from the second line, but those who can strengthen the quantity and quality of balls for forwards, increasing their chances of having shots with a higher number of expected goals accumulated during a match.”
Delineating the Problem: Lack of Creative Output
Aguirre has tested 11 forwards in this tenure, with six specifically playing as central strikers. The rest can play there or on the wings, like Alexis Vega, Julián Quiñones, and Germán Berterame.
Raúl Jiménez, currently playing for Fulham in the Premier League, has been the most effective with 1,252 minutes, 11 goals, and two assists despite being one of the oldest (34 years) among the called-up players in this ‘Vasco’ era.
No other forward has scored at least three goals for the national team since September 2024 to January 2026, with Santiago Giménez, Germán Berterame, Henry Martín, and César ‘Chino’ Huerta managing only two each.
“We lack that decisive player, as we are all aware line by line. We don’t have a figure of that specific weight who is also at their peak,” Fernández emphasizes.
Physical Condition Concerns
Another factor weighing on Mexico’s attack is the physical condition of the forwards. Of the 11 strikers Aguirre has tried, four are currently inactive due to injury, one is returning from rehabilitation, and another was separated from his club.
These players are Alexis Vega, Santiago Giménez, César Huerta, and Guillermo Martínez; Henry Martín; and Hirving ‘Chucky’ Lozano, respectively.
“You can’t risk taking a player to the World Cup who’s not at their best, coming back from an injury, or just joining the team,” Fernández stresses.
“The goal is to optimize the squad, as Aguirre is betting on the time, altitude, and pollution of Mexico City for matches scheduled at 1:00 PM (in the World Cup).
“If he focuses on this strategy, bringing players who are 70%, 80%, or 90% fit won’t help either. Aguirre is clear about this strategy to reduce the performance of other teams, so he must carry well-conditioned players who are ready for him.”
In the previous World Cup, Qatar 2022, Gerardo Martino surprised by taking Raúl Jiménez, who wasn’t in optimal physical condition, while leaving out Santiago Giménez, who was a goal scorer in the Dutch Eredivisie’s Feyenoord.
This time, Julián Quiñones looks more fit and football-ready compared to Raúl Jiménez, who has been consistent in the Premier League.
Top 5 Forwards with Most Minutes under Javier Aguirre
- Raúl Jiménez (Fulham/England) – 1,252 minutes with 11 goals and 2 assists
- Alexis Vega (Toluca) – 952 minutes with 1 goal and 3 assists
- Santiago Giménez (AC Milan/Italy) – 719 minutes with 2 goals and 1 assist
- César Huerta (Anderlecht/Belgium) – 606 minutes with 2 goals and 0 assists
- Julián Quiñones (Al Qadisiyah/Saudi Arabia) – 401 minutes with 0 goals and 2 assists
Source: Transfermarkt
