Introduction
In the first four months of 2025, manufacturing establishments under Mexico’s IMMEX program have shown a slowdown in employment, influenced by uncertainties in U.S. tariffs and changes in the economic environment.
Employment Decline in IMMEX Program
According to data from INEGI, occupation decreased by 0.8% in April compared to the previous month and by 1.8% annually. Experts attribute this decline to uncertainty surrounding the U.S.’s tariff policies and the recent rise in the minimum wage along the border region.
Tereso Medina Ramírez, general secretary of the National Union of Metalworkers, Siderurgical, Automotive and Auto Parts Suppliers in Mexico (SNTIMSA), told El Economista: “There is a noticeable phenomenon, particularly in hiring workers along the border, in cities such as Piedras Negras, Acuña, Ciudad Juárez, and Reynosa, where the growth rate or job creation has slowed.”
Relocation of Operations
Medina Ramírez, also the general secretary of Coahuila’s Workers Federation (CTM), noted that companies have stopped hiring workers, attributing this to a possible relocation of jobs due to increased labor costs. He stated, “I have observed that in the maquiladora industry, there is a possible relocation of work. Companies claim that due to recent increases in the minimum wage, they have become less competitive as maquiladoras typically rely on labor-intensive work with low profit margins for them.”
As of January 1, 2025, the daily minimum wage in the free trade zone along the northern border increased to 419.88 pesos, a 12% rise compared to the previous year, while the general minimum wage stands at 278.80 pesos, according to data from the Minimum Wage Commission.
Impact on Exports and Investment
Jesús Manuel Salayandia Lara, president of the Border Business Bloc (BEF), mentioned to Ciudad Juárez press in March that INEGI data from June 2022 showed the maquiladora industry peaked at generating 326,388 jobs, which decreased to 271,229—indicating a sector contraction.
Salayandia believes factors contributing to the job loss include tariff uncertainty, minimum wage increases in the border region, and decreased investment.
Both Medina Ramírez and Salayandia agree that the minimum wage hike has compelled IMMEX establishments to shift operations to southern states with lower labor costs.
Impact of Tariffs on Trade Balance
The Matamoros Index for the Maquiladora and Manufacturing Export Industry (Index) reflects the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the trade balance.
- In February, exports grew by 9.6% monthly but fell by -0.4% in May.
- The automotive sector saw a 6.1% increase in February, followed by a -9.0% decrease in May.
Index Nacional warns that reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. government affect the economy, productivity, and investment, ultimately leading to higher prices for millions of consumers.
During a recent forum in Nuevo León on reducing the workweek, Index Nacional president Humberto Martínez Cantú expressed concern over job losses in the northern border, particularly in Chihuahua and Ciudad Juárez. He emphasized that this industry generates over 3.2 million direct jobs and more than 6 million indirect ones, accounting for over 60% of formal employment.
