Key Export Leaders in Mexico’s Border States
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), Mexico’s border states continued their leadership in exports during the second quarter of 2025, with only the manufacturing sector growing nationally by 7.2% compared to the same period in the previous year.
Chihuahua’s Export Performance
Chihuahua led the way with US$26,231 million in exports, marking a 43.2% annual increase. The subsector of manufacturing electronic computing, communication, measurement, and other electronic equipment, components, and accessories contributed US$15,181 million, accounting for nearly half of the national value at US$31,323 million.
Manufacturing Sector Overview
The manufacturing sector remained dominant, with the transportation equipment subsector accounting for US$53,325.3 million, a 5% decrease from the previous year. Analyst Héctor Magaña noted that this decline signals a cyclical slowdown in the automotive cluster and its supply chain, rather than a structural contraction of the manufacturing sector.
Automotive Sector Performance
Coahuila topped the automotive export rankings with US$11,421.8 million, a 3.9% decrease from the second quarter of 2024. Guanajuato followed with a 3.1% reduction, while Nuevo León experienced a 7.3% growth; Chihuahua saw a 6.5% contraction, and San Luis Potosí reported a 0.6% annual increase.
Impact of US Trade Policy
The new U.S. trade strategy, making Mexican vehicles more expensive for American consumers, has reduced competitiveness and demand in the automotive sector. Analyst Kristobal Melendez stated that this pressure will likely persist throughout the tariff war unless a clear countermeasure is implemented.
Jalisco’s Export Success
Despite not being a border state, Jalisco became one of the top exporters in Mexico, ranking third in annual growth at 40.9%. This success is largely attributed to the manufacturing sector, particularly computer equipment production, accounting for US$9,871 million.
Nearshoring and Market Diversification
The manufacturing sector’s 92.3% contribution to total exports suggests that nearshoring remains robust. Although export concentration is high in the northern corridor, indicating deeper regional linkages typical of nearshoring, analysts advise caution when discussing its consolidation.
Market diversification plays a favorable role, as economic and international factors that influence one sector, like automotive, can benefit others. This was evident in the recent quarter, according to Kristobal Melendez.
Declining Sectors
Despite the growth in exports, mining fell 15.6% to US$6,790 million, and agriculture contracted 11.5% to US$4,570 million during the reported period.
Mining Sector Decline
Petroleum-rich states, such as Campeche (-33.6%), Tabasco (-34.5%), and Veracruz (-38.5%), experienced more significant declines in mining.
Agricultural Sector Performance
Michoacán led agricultural exports with US$1,242 million and a 24.4% growth rate. Sonora and Sinaloa, however, saw declines of 21.9% and 28.3%, respectively; Jalisco grew by 10%; and Baja California fell 22.6%. Experts attribute the agricultural declines in Sonora and Sinaloa to drought, while price and cost shocks exacerbated the impact, according to Héctor Magaña.
