Background on Guanajuato and its Economic Landscape
Guanajuato, a Mexican state known for its significant contributions to the national economy, has experienced a 4.7% contraction in its automotive industry, which accounts for 80% of the state’s exports. This decline has pushed Guanajuato to diversify its export industries and sectors, as well as municipal contributions.
Decline in Export Rankings
According to the Coordinadora de Fomento al Comercio Exterior (Cofoce) of Guanajuato and data from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Inegi), Guanajuato dropped from the fifth to the seventh position in national export rankings when comparing the first half of 2025 to the same period in the previous year. This shift means Guanajuato lost its title as the leading non-border state exporter to Jalisco.
Risks of Over-reliance on a Single Sector
Luis Ernesto Rojas Ávila, the general director of Cofoce, highlighted the risks associated with over-dependence on a single sector. He stated, “When the automotive sector faces challenges, Guanajuato suffers as well.” Rojas explained that heavy manufacturing clusters, while showing high investment and production value figures, carry structural risks.
“When this cluster lacks steel or doesn’t produce aluminum and copper, we must rely on foreign sources,” Rojas pointed out. “A single announcement from the White House or Donald Trump can drastically reduce our exports.”
Rojas emphasized that these clusters may not necessarily lead to deep-rooted economic development. He questioned whether Mexico should continue relying on vulnerable clusters or invest in locally-rooted ecosystems that foster sustainable growth.
The Agribusiness Sector as a Strategic Alternative
Rojas identified the agribusiness sector as Guanajuato’s most solid alternative, citing favorable conditions such as fertile land, climate, water resources, and the combination of ancestral knowledge with modern technology.
“The agribusiness sector is an endogenous ecosystem that generates economic development from the roots,” he explained. “Even if faced with trade threats, this sector can absorb the impact without collapsing. We have over 200 potential markets, keeping the wealth generated within local communities and among producers.”
Guanajuato’s agribusiness sector exports to more than 70 countries, including products like broccoli (which accounts for 70% of US consumption), berries, frozen vegetables, and a growing wine industry with over 65 vineyards, according to Cofoce.
“Today’s agriculture is not the same as it was before,” Rojas stated. “We now have advanced irrigation systems, precision agriculture, and value-added processes that allow us to pay salaries two or three times higher than a decade ago, leading to genuine economic development rather than mere statistical growth.”
Resilience in the Automotive Sector
While automakers adjust production due to new tariffs and trade uncertainty, other traditional sectors like agribusiness, footwear, textiles, and metalworking have continued growing at around 8%. This growth demonstrates that Guanajuato’s product diversification, though still insufficient, is already yielding positive results and providing stability amid global volatility.
“The United States is shifting from Chinese imports to products from other countries, with Mexico having the greatest opportunity due to proximity, free trade agreements, and strong relationships,” Rojas explained. This presents a unique window for Guanajuato’s micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMES) to expand their international presence.
Guanajuato’s Export Landscape
Guanajuato boasts 1,798 export-oriented businesses, with MSMES accounting for 82% of the total. These exports reach 150 countries, including the United States, Canada, Japan, Colombia, Guatemala, and emerging markets like Guinea and Botswana.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current situation of Guanajuato’s export sector? Guanajuato has experienced a 4.7% decline in its automotive industry, which represents 80% of its exports. This has prompted the state to diversify its export industries and sectors.
- Why is diversification important for Guanajuato? Diversifying export industries reduces the state’s vulnerability to fluctuations in a single sector, ensuring long-term economic stability.
- Which alternative sectors is Guanajuato focusing on? The agribusiness sector is being emphasized due to favorable conditions and its potential for sustainable growth.
- How do other sectors contribute to Guanajuato’s economy? Traditional sectors like footwear, textiles, and metalworking have continued growing at around 8% amidst the automotive industry’s challenges.
- What opportunities do MSMES in Guanajuato have? With a strong focus on agribusiness and other traditional sectors, Guanajuato’s MSMES can expand their international presence, taking advantage of free trade agreements and proximity to key markets.
