Introduction
In the second quarter of 2025, 19 out of Mexico’s 32 federal entities reported growth in their Indicador Trimestral de la Actividad Económica Estatal (ITAEE), according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Inegi). Hidalgo led the way with a 3.14% increase, followed by Michoacán (3.04%), Guanajuato (2.86%), and Nuevo León (2.56%).
Key Contributors to Hidalgo’s Economic Growth
Héctor Magaña, an economic analyst, identified three main factors driving Hidalgo’s impressive growth:
- Agricultural Sector Uptick: A marked rebound in agriculture, with favorable crop cycles and base effects amplifying growth in this sector.
- Manufacturing and Construction: The alignment of manufacturing and construction with the consolidation of the Tizayuca–Sahagún industrial corridor, along with new investments and expansions like JAC (Giant Motors) plant in Ciudad Sahagún, further boosted the economy.
- Proximity to AIFA and Logistics Projects: The growing proximity and interconnectivity with the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and projects like AIFA–Pachuca train and Platah logistics platform strengthen local logistics and services.
National Economic Landscape
According to BBVA Research’s analysis, Situación Regional Sectorial, the second half of 2025 projects a 1.3% contraction in secondary activities, as each activity showed a decrease in its PIB, except for manufacturing up to the first half of the year.
Nationally, only 14 out of 32 entities experienced growth, with Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Guanajuato, Ciudad de México, Hidalgo, and Jalisco contributing positively to the secondary sector.
Guanajuato’s Industrial-Driven Growth
Guanajuato’s growth is primarily supported by its industrial sector. The state boasts an extensive network of industrial parks and land availability for new projects, with over 3,600 hectares offered. Multiple expansions announced by manufacturing-automotive and supply chain companies further bolster private and associated service developments.
Comparison with Other Growing Entities
Kristobal Melendez, a financial analyst, noted that Hidalgo’s growth is evident after facing significant decline a year prior. Its geographical location and investment levels allowed it to quickly regain economic momentum.
Guanajuato maintains a consistent growth rate in economic activity, providing investors with more certainty. Its geographical position also enables it to capitalize on the domestic market.
“Both Hidalgo and Guanajuato are surpassing pressures from the tariff war, with their economic rhythms gradually returning to normal,” Melendez added.
Tertiary Sector Performance
Twenty entities contributed to the national increase in the tertiary sector, with Ciudad de México, Estado de México, and Nuevo León adding significant value. However, Guerrero, Hidalgo, and the Estado de México were the fastest-growing entities during this period.
Notable declines in the ITAEE were observed in Nayarit, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Zacatecas, and Tlaxcala.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Which states led in economic growth during Q2 2025?
A: Hidalgo, Michoacán, Guanajuato, and Nuevo León were the top performers.
- Q: What factors contributed to Hidalgo’s impressive growth?
A: The agricultural sector rebound, manufacturing and construction growth, and proximity to AIFA and logistics projects played crucial roles.
- Q: How did the national economy perform in secondary activities?
A: A 1.3% contraction was projected for secondary activities, with only 14 entities experiencing growth.
- Q: What drives Guanajuato’s economic growth?
A: Its industrial sector, extensive network of industrial parks, and numerous expansions by manufacturing-automotive and supply chain companies support its growth.
- Q: Which states had the most significant increases in tertiary sector growth?
A: Guerrero, Hidalgo, and the Estado de México experienced the most substantial growth in this sector.
