Background on Jalisco’s Economic Landscape
Jalisco, a Mexican state known for its vibrant economy and bustling city of Guadalajara, has experienced a continuous decline in registered employers for 15 consecutive months. This trend is primarily affecting micro and small businesses, which constitute the backbone of Jalisco’s economy.
Expert Analysis: Nora Ampudia, Professor and Researcher at the Universidad Panamericana (UP)
Nora Ampudia, a professor and researcher at the Universidad Panamericana, highlights that this sustained decrease in registered employers erodes the foundation of businesses and, consequently, wealth generation, job creation, and income.
Ampudia explains that the rise in the minimum wage not only directly impacts payroll but also increases associated costs such as year-end bonuses, social security contributions, and payroll taxes.
“When the minimum wage increases, so does overall labor cost,” Ampudia Márquez points out. “This situation is particularly challenging for micro and small businesses, which make up 99% of all economic units in Jalisco and across Mexico.”
The researcher further explains that 97% of businesses are micro enterprises, and 2% are small businesses. These entities struggle to cover wage increases amidst low economic growth and diminished consumer spending. Consequently, the adjustment is transferred to the labor market through job precarization.
“Families cannot absorb rising prices, so they resort to labor precarization: reducing salaries, cutting benefits, and pushing workers into informal employment,” Ampudia emphasizes. “Workers may be registered with a formal company but have lower salaries than they actually earn or not be registered at all.”
This process, she adds, creates a vicious cycle: job erosion reduces income, affecting consumption, sales, investment, and ultimately hindering the creation of new job opportunities. The economy then stagnates.
Sector-wise Impact
According to data from the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), between November 2024 and November 2025, Jalisco witnessed a decline in employers across various sectors:
- Commerce: -2.5%
- Transformation Industry: -2.5%
- Transportation and Communications: -2.4%
- Agriculture: -2.2%
- Social and Community Services: -1.1%
Coparmex’s Perspective
Raúl Flores López, president of Coparmex Jalisco, acknowledges concerns over declining businesses and employment but clarifies that this does not necessarily mean a shift to informal work, rather business closures.
Jonatan Saucedo, Public Affairs Manager at Coparmex Jalisco, elaborates that commerce, transformation industry, and services sectors experienced the highest number of closures over the past year, with around 1,600 businesses ceasing operations. These businesses primarily employed between one and five workers.
However, Saucedo notes that Coparmex Jalisco does not clearly observe a trend of businesses transitioning to informality.
