Overview of Current Export Trends and Future Projections
According to Susana Duque Roquero, the General Director of the Mexican Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (Comce), Mexican exports are projected to close 2025 with growth. However, there might be a contraction in the first half of 2026.
Export Growth in 2025
From January to July 2025, Mexican exports have shown a 4.3% growth compared to the same period in the previous year. This positive trend suggests that 2025 will see continued growth, despite potential short-term setbacks.
US Trade Relationship and Future Prospects
The United States remains Mexico’s primary trading partner, accounting for 84% of its exports. The close commercial relationship and ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies are key factors in Mexico’s export performance.
“We anticipate that 2025 will conclude with higher export values compared to 2024, although there might be a contraction in the first half of 2026. However, the upward trend will persist due to our tightly integrated supply chains with those of the United States. This integration is difficult to halt, given that 84% of our exports are destined for the US, and this momentum continues regardless of tariff uncertainties,” Duque Roquero explained.
Mexico’s Export Power and the T-MEC Agreement
In 2024, Mexico ranked as the tenth-largest exporter globally, with exported goods valued at over 617 billion US dollars—a 4% annual increase and a historical high. Despite tariff uncertainties from the US in 2025, the T-MEC agreement continues to provide a secure framework for tariff-free exports of most goods.
The Comce director also mentioned that the T-MEC review, scheduled for mid-2026, might evolve into a renegotiation. Still, she emphasized that the initial focus will be on updating the agreement.
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Regional Content Creation
Duque Roquero highlighted the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) joining supply chains to generate more regional content and benefit from the tariff-free provisions of the T-MEC agreement. This objective is one that Comce aims to promote through the upcoming Congress in Querétaro, contributing to Mexico’s strategic plan.
Upcoming Congress of Mexican Foreign Trade
From October 29 to 31, Querétaro will host the 31st Congress of Mexican Foreign Trade, themed “Towards a New Era in International Trade.” The event aims to create proposals and alliances addressing global challenges.
- Event Details: The Congress will feature 50 booths, conferences, business meetings, networking sessions, and technical visits to companies.
- Key Topics: Participants will discuss technological transformation, supply chain relocation, sustainability, artificial intelligence, and new international business models.
