Overview of Retail Performance Across Mexican States
Despite a challenging economic environment, Mexico’s retail sector has shown resilience across its 32 states. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), retail sales have experienced annual growth in all states during the first 11 months of 2025.
Guerrero Leads the Way with 15.74% Growth
Guerrero state led the pack with a remarkable 15.74% annual increase in retail sales, marking a recovery trend after two consecutive years of decline. The capital city, Mexico City, followed closely with a 2.78% growth, while Chihuahua came in third with a 2.49% increase.
Other notable performers included Nayarit, Hidalgo, Michoacán, Tabasco, Zacatecas, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Yucatán, Veracruz, Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, and Guanajuato, with annual growth rates ranging from 2.11% to 2.41%.
Eight States Show Slower Growth
However, eight states displayed retail growth below 2%, namely Sonora, Baja California, Jalisco, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Querétaro, Oaxaca, and Aguascalientes.
Challenges to Retail Growth
Despite the resilience shown by Mexican states, several factors could hinder retail growth, according to Banco Base:
- Decline in remittances: Remittances fell by 5.67% annually by November (latest available data), marking eight months of consecutive decline.
- High nominal interest rate: The high-interest rate adds to the pressure on consumer spending.
- Consumer caution: The Consumer Confidence Survey for December showed a 2.37-point annual decrease to 44.7 points, marking 12 months of decline.
“While retail has shown positive performance and resilience, wholesale trade continues to reflect weakness due to corporate caution and reduced investment,” states Banco Base.
Importance of Retail Sector in Mexico’s Economy
Private consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of Mexico’s GDP, making it the most crucial component. Its determinants include consumer confidence, changing economic expectations, inflation, personal disposable income, credit allocation, and interest rates.
Monex anticipates that Mexican retail will exhibit clearer signs of recovery by year-end, with a monthly advance of 1.0% in November—the highest since June.
“This performance was supported by key segments such as online sales, leisure goods, and durable items, indicating a rise in spending related to the end-of-year season and significant events like Buen Fin. However, essential categories such as food and beverages still face weakness.”
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the overall performance of Mexico’s retail sector? The retail sector has shown resilience, with annual growth in all 32 states during the first 11 months of 2025.
- Which state performed best in retail sales growth? Guerrero state led with a 15.74% annual increase in retail sales.
- What factors could limit retail growth? Declining remittances, high interest rates, and consumer caution pose challenges to retail growth.
- Why is the retail sector important for Mexico’s economy? Private consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of Mexico’s GDP, making retail sector performance crucial.
