Introduction
In 2025, Mexico’s formal employment showed improvement compared to 2024, largely due to a pilot program for digital platform workers. However, at the state level, there is an ongoing structural stagnation.
State-Level Employment Trends
Out of Mexico’s 32 federal entities, 18 reported job losses in the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) in 2025, a situation not seen since 2020 when the health crisis began.
Key Players in Formal Employment
The largest contributors to formal employment were the Mexico City and State of Mexico, which also host the most digital platform workers. These two regions have the largest national economies.
Job Creation Figures
Nationwide, 278,697 formal jobs were created in the IMSS in 2025, surpassing 2024’s 213,993. However, excluding crisis years (2020 and 2008-2009), these figures were the lowest since 2003 (25,280 hirings).
Excluding Digital Platforms
When digital platforms are excluded, the actual job creation stands at a mere 72,176 positions.
State-by-State Job Creation
Ciudad de México led with 196,226 new formal jobs, followed by the State of Mexico (129,481), Jalisco (27,794), Nuevo León (19,389), Tlaxcala (9,286), Querétaro (4,965), and Hidalgo (4,873). Quintana Roo followed with 4,020.
Only Ciudad de México, the State of Mexico, and Tlaxcala surpassed 2024’s job creation.
Job Losses in Northern Border States
The northern border states experienced the most formal job losses in 2025: Coahuila (-22,687), Sonora (-15,854), and Baja California (-13,399). Chihuahua and Tamaulipas also reported job losses in this region.
Other states with job losses included Sinaloa, Campeche, Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Yucatán, Morelos, Zacatecas, Guerrero, San Luis Potosí, and Nayarit.
Implications of the Data
These results indicate a fragile labor market. The employer register showed a total of 1,029,280 employers in December, a decrease of 6,839 from the previous month. Annually, there was a drop of 25,667 employers compared to December 2024, a 2.43% contraction.
This 18-month consecutive annual decline last occurred between 2003 and 2005, signaling sustained business unit degradation, according to Banco Base.
Overall Balance
Banco Base states that the labor market balance at year-end 2025 confirms Mexico’s structural stagnation, where resilient unemployment hides a deep degradation in job quality.
While IMSS records show marginal growth, this is distorted by the registration of pre-existing workers rather than genuine productive capacity expansion.
The Encuesta Nacional de Occupación y Empleo (ENOE) reveals massive formal job losses and a systematic retreat into informality, showing human capital has shifted from efficiency driver to a potential GDP growth anchor.
Principal Challenge
Banco Base predicts that sustaining domestic consumption will be the main challenge in 2026 due to the fragile formal business base. The 18-month consecutive decline in the employer register, losing over 25,000 employers, suggests the formal sector’s diminishing capacity to generate quality jobs.
Although average wage and real wage mass supported purchasing power in 2025, this growth faces structural limits without new business unit creation. Growth will depend on nominal adjustments rather than productivity increases, deepening informality.
The difficulty in accessing formal jobs, combined with alternative income sources, will continue to push people out of the economically active population, creating a paradox of labor scarcity amid low-growth environments.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the overall trend in Mexico’s formal employment in 2025? Formal employment showed improvement compared to 2024, but there is structural stagnation at the state level.
- Which states experienced job losses in 2025? Coahuila, Sonora, Baja California, and several other states reported job losses.
- What are the implications of excluding digital platform workers from job creation figures? When digital platforms are excluded, actual job creation stands at a mere 72,176 positions.
- What challenges does Mexico’s labor market face in 2026? The primary challenge is sustaining domestic consumption amid a fragile formal business base.
