Positive Outlook Amidst Trade Uncertainties
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming renegotiation of the Trades and Commerce Agreement (T-MEC) between Mexico, the United States, and Canada, organized trade in Jalisco remains optimistic about the state’s economic growth. The Cámara de Comercio de Guadalajara, led by President Javier Arroyo Navarro, projects a positive trajectory for the state’s economy with expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and accelerated job creation by 2026.
GDP Growth Projections
Jalisco’s GDP growth was 0.9% in 2024 and is expected to reach 1.1% this year. However, the outlook for 2026 is even more promising, with an estimated GDP growth of 1.6%, according to Arroyo Navarro.
He further elaborated on the macroeconomic environment, stating, “We anticipate moderate economic growth with a trajectory that decelerates in 2025 but picks up in 2026. We expect a stable macroeconomic environment, manageable inflation, and an exchange rate of 18.72 pesos per dollar.”
Labor Market Outlook
In terms of employment, the Cámara de Comercio tapatía president anticipates the creation of approximately 37,900 formal jobs in Jalisco by 2025. This number could rise significantly to around 60,000 new positions in 2026, driven by the performance of commerce, services, and tourism sectors, as well as international events that continue to position Jalisco as an economic hub.
Arroyo Navarro acknowledged the presence of relevant risks, including trade tensions with the United States, uncertainty surrounding T-MEC renegotiation, and the implementation of the Judicial Reform. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence in the trade agreement review process.
“The three economies are well-integrated, particularly Mexico with the United States. We will likely hear a lot of noise during the renegotiation, but we are trading partners, and I am confident that the process will be successful,” he affirmed.
Structural Advantages
Roberto Arechederra Pacheco, vicepresident of Semiconductors and Business Accelerator at the Cámara de Comercio de Guadalajara, highlighted that the commerce and services sector has been one of Jalisco’s most stable sectors, growing between 1% and 2% this year amidst national GDP volatility.
Arechederra emphasized Jalisco’s structural advantages that bolster its growth prospects. In 2024, Jalisco led nationally in primary activities—agriculture, livestock, and agroindustry—contributing 14.7% of the country’s gross value added (GVA) in these sectors, opening opportunities for exports, substitution of imports, and attracting agrofood investment.
He also pointed out Jalisco’s high-value export potential. By September, the state had recorded $2,957 million in exports of machinery and data processing units, linked to electronics, information technology (IT), and advanced manufacturing—key factors for capitalizing on nearshoring.
Regarding T-MEC, Arechederra noted that the agreement remains valid until 2030. Despite tougher trade rhetoric, Mexico maintains a competitive position compared to other countries. The average export tariff to the United States is 4.4%, significantly lower than the global average of 8.75% and far from China’s 45.6%.
“85% of the goods we export to the United States enter under T-MEC rules and currently pay no tariffs, except for specific cases like steel, aluminum, and others.”
Mexico has increased its participation in strategic export sectors to the United States, such as reactors, boilers, and machinery, along with vehicles and tractors.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the outlook for Jalisco’s economy according to organized trade? Organized trade in Jalisco anticipates a better economic outlook for 2026, with moderate GDP growth and accelerated job creation.
- What are the projected GDP growth rates for Jalisco? The GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.9% in 2024, 1.1% in the current year, and an optimistic 1.6% in 2026.
- Which sectors are driving job creation in Jalisco? The commerce, services, and tourism sectors, along with international events, are expected to create around 37,900 formal jobs by 2025 and potentially 60,000 more in 2026.
- What are the structural advantages of Jalisco’s economy? Jalisco leads nationally in primary activities, contributing significantly to the country’s GVA. The state also has high-value export potential in sectors linked to electronics, IT, and advanced manufacturing.
- How does Mexico’s position look in the T-MEC renegotiation? Despite tougher trade rhetoric, Mexico maintains a competitive position with an average export tariff of 4.4% to the United States, significantly lower than global and Chinese averages.
