Introduction
At the start of 2025, the economies in Mexico’s south-southeast region displayed contrasting realities. While some states faced economic downturns, others experienced growth due to federal construction incentives. This article examines the economic performance of Campeche, Tabasco, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, and Guerrero.
Economic Performance: A Tale of Two Regions
During the first quarter of 2025, the economies in the south-southeast region exhibited opposing trends. Campeche, Tabasco, and Quintana Roo experienced significant declines, while Oaxaca and Guerrero registered substantial growth.
Declining Economies: Campeche, Tabasco, and Quintana Roo
Campeche’s economy contracted by 16.8% interannually in Q1 2025, according to the deseasonalized Indicador Trimestral de la Actividad Económica Estatal (ITAEE). Tabasco followed with a 12.3% decline, and Quintana Roo saw a 9.2% drop, as reported by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Inegi).
Héctor Magaña, an economic and financial analyst, explained that Campeche’s decline is structural and linked to the petroleum industry cycle. The state’s economy heavily relies on hydrocarbon extraction, so any adjustments in Pemex’s production levels or investment limitations directly impact the ITAEE.
Tabasco has experienced seven consecutive quarters of economic contraction, indicating a deeper stagnation rather than a temporary adjustment. The construction of the Dos Bocas refinery initially boosted Tabasco’s growth, but as the project neared completion, economic activity gradually slowed.
Quintana Roo, with three consecutive quarters of decline, shows signs of slowing tourism growth. This is attributed to the normalization of visitor arrivals and a high basis of comparison with recent years. Additionally, rising tourism service costs and hotel infrastructure saturation further limit sector expansion.
Thriving Economies: Oaxaca and Guerrero
Oaxaca and Guerrero experienced robust economic growth, with Oaxaca’s ITAEE growing by 5.7% and Guerrero’s by 8.0%. These growth rates are linked to public works investments for Acapulco’s port renovation and infrastructure recovery following hurricane Otis damages in late 2023.
Magaña noted that public works positively impact short-term growth by stimulating construction and increasing demand for materials, transportation, and services. This benefits secondary and tertiary sectors. Oaxaca and Nayarit, with 4.7% growth, also benefited from airport expansion projects and improved road connectivity to beach destinations.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the main economic trends in Mexico’s south-southeast region? The region displays contrasting economic trends, with Campeche, Tabasco, and Quintana Roo experiencing declines while Oaxaca and Guerrero thrive due to public works investments.
- Why is Campeche’s economy struggling? Campeche’s heavy reliance on the petroleum industry, specifically Pemex production adjustments and investment limitations, has led to a structural economic decline.
- What factors contribute to Tabasco’s economic slowdown? Tabasco’s prolonged economic contraction indicates deeper stagnation, as the initial growth from public works projects like Dos Bocas refinery has gradually slowed.
- Why is Quintana Roo’s tourism sector showing signs of slowing growth? Factors such as rising tourism service costs, high visitor arrival normalization, and hotel infrastructure saturation limit sector expansion.
- How have public works impacted Oaxaca and Guerrero’s economies? Public works investments in Oaxaca and Guerrero have positively impacted short-term growth by stimulating construction, increasing demand for materials and services, and benefiting secondary and tertiary sectors.
