Overview of Economic Performance Across Mexico’s States
In 2024, the 32 federal entities in Mexico displayed a mixed economic performance. However, the states located in the southeastern region experienced more significant declines in their economic activities.
According to deseasonalized data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), 24 out of the 32 entities reported annual increases in their Indicator Trimester of Economic Activity (ITAEE).
States with Notable Growth
Oaxaca led the growth with a 5.3% increase in its economic activity, largely due to positive effects on the construction industry from the Interoceanic Corridor, a flagship project of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration.
Durango and Puebla followed with 4.7% and 4.0% growth, respectively. Nuevo León and Guanajuato also showed robust performance with 3.7% growth each.
Colima, Veracruz, Zacatecas, Yucatán, and Guerrero also demonstrated annual ITAEE variations above 2.5%.
States with Declining Economies
On the other hand, eight states experienced annual declines in their economic activities in 2024. The most significant drop was observed in Tabasco, with a 7.4% decrease compared to 2023.
Tabasco’s decline can be attributed to two primary factors: the waning positive impact of the Dos Bocas refinery construction on the construction industry, which has yet to reach full capacity, and reduced oil production along with low international crude prices. Tabasco’s economy is heavily reliant on petroleum mining.
Campeche followed with a 7.0% decline, affected by the struggling petroleum sector and its exclusion from major southeastern projects during the previous federal administration.
Quintana Roo completed the negative trio, with a 3.9% decline, partly due to the conclusion of the Tren Maya project, which heavily impacted multiple routes in the state.
Sinaloa, Nayarit, Coahuila, Aguascalientes, and Jalisco also experienced reduced ITAEE. Notably, Jalisco, Mexico’s fourth-largest economy, faced substantial challenges.
Economic Risks and Uncertainties
Banco Base highlights ongoing risks to economic growth, primarily due to Mexican manufacturers’ exposure to external trade threats, especially from the United States—Mexico’s primary trading partner and manufacturing destination.
The construction sector faces significant risks in 2025 due to reduced public investment resulting from fiscal discipline and private sector caution amid high uncertainty. This combination restricts both non-residential and residential construction.
Ve por Más (BX+) anticipates that Mexico’s economic activity will remain fragile, at least until the end of the first half of 2025, in an environment of high economic uncertainty.
Private consumption will continue to benefit from low unemployment rates, wage growth, social support programs, and remittance growth in pesos. However, discretionary spending will be constrained by slower job creation, lower consumer confidence, and relatively high—though decreasing—interest rates.
