Introduction
In the face of an uncertain international economic environment, driven by U.S. tariff policies, reduced public spending on infrastructure and investment, three Mexican states stand out for their robust economic growth: the State of México, Nuevo León, and Yucatán.
Economic Performance in Mexican Entities
According to seasonally adjusted data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), 19 out of Mexico’s 32 entities displayed positive annual variations in their Indicador Trimestral de la Actividad Económica Estatal (ITAEE) during the second quarter of 2025.
The largest increases were observed in Hidalgo (7.1%), Guanajuato (4.5%), Nuevo León (4.2%), the Federal District (3.7%), Michoacán (3.7%), and Tamaulipas (3.3%). Other entities with annual ITAEE growth rates between 2% and 2.7% include Chiapas, Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Aguascalientes, and San Luis Potosí.
Meanwhile, the most significant declines in economic activity were recorded in Campeche (-13.4%), Quintana Roo (-9.6%), Tabasco (-6.8%), Durango (-6.3%), and Oaxaca (-2.7%). Other decreases occurred in Veracruz, Chihuahua, Tlaxcala, Coahuila, Baja California, Morelos, Nayarit, and Sonora.
Regional Performance and Key Entities
BBVA Research explains that the regional performance in 2025 follows an asymmetric growth pattern among states, driven by the services sector (Federal District and Baja California Sur). Tabasco and Campeche, however, have already felt the impact of civil engineering work conclusion; by 2025, the growth driver will be the services sector, including tourism and wholesale/retail trade, which mitigates industrial weakness and sustains national growth.
Leading Entities
Despite the national economic challenges, the State of México, Nuevo León, and Yucatán have been the economic backbone of Mexico. These three states have recorded 17 consecutive quarters with positive annual ITAEE variations since the same period in 2021.
This indicates that these three states have the highest economic dynamism, followed by Guanajuato (13 consecutive quarters with annual economic activity increases) and Colima (11 consecutive quarters).
On the other hand, Tabasco has the most consecutive quarters with economic declines (8), followed by Campeche (5) and Quintana Roo (4).
While some states consolidate the resilience of trade or industrial relocation, others face a slowdown following the completion of iconic public works and federal adjustments in physical investment…
Regional Economic Outlook
According to BBVA Research, a slight reacceleration and reduced disparity among states are expected in 2026. New private investment flows linked to relocation and the gradual improvement of the external manufacturing cycle should drive a more balanced recovery in the north and the Bajío.
Meanwhile, major economies like the Federal District, the State of México, Jalisco, and Nuevo León will continue growing at or above the national rate, driven by tourism services and consumption. This growth will be fueled by the influx of visitors to these entities due to the 2026 World Cup.
“In the southeast, Tabasco and Campeche should stabilize as energy sector investments gain momentum. In Morelos, the impact of Nissan plant closure will be less pronounced in 2025 (phased approach), with a more significant effect in 2026 if the production relocation to Aguascalientes progresses as planned,” the document reads.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Which Mexican states are leading in economic growth? A: The State of México, Nuevo León, and Yucatán are the leading states in economic growth.
- Q: What sectors are driving the growth in these states? A: The services sector, particularly tourism and retail/wholesale trade, is driving growth in these states.
- Q: Which states are experiencing economic declines? A: Tabasco, Campeche, Quintana Roo, Durango, and Oaxaca are among the states facing economic declines.
- Q: What is expected for the Mexican economy in 2026? A: A slight reacceleration and reduced disparity among states are anticipated in 2026, with more balanced growth expected in the north and Bajío regions.
- Q: How will the 2026 World Cup impact Mexico’s economy? A: The influx of visitors to major economies like the Federal District, the State of México, Jalisco, and Nuevo León will fuel growth driven by tourism services and consumption.
