Introduction
The recent surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment in the United States has already left its mark on Mexico’s trade balance, according to a report by Oxford Economics. If this AI boom in the US translates into a prolonged cycle of digital capital expenditure (capex), such as data processing and storage centers, Mexico could deepen its specialization in machinery and solidify a digital nearshoring advantage.
AI Investment and Mexican Exports
The US’s new wave of AI investment has influenced Mexico’s trade balance. Oxford Economics states that the US demand for tariff-free machinery, particularly related to data processing and storage for computing centers, is driving Mexican exports upwards.
- Despite US tariffs, Mexico’s nominal export growth has been 7% annually in August and averaged 4.8% year-to-date.
- The trade balance for merchandise, excluding oil and gasoline, has expanded to nearly a $16 billion surplus—levels not seen since before the pandemic.
- More than 80% of Mexico’s external sales still go to the US, making it the top trading partner for the United States with almost 16% of its imports.
AI’s Impact on Export Categories
According to Bank of America, US AI infrastructure investments contributed 1.3% to the country’s GDP growth in Q2 2025. Three major categories—transportation equipment, machinery, and electrical machinery—account for about 70% of Mexico’s total exports to the US.
- While 25% tariffs on autos have caused a 5% decline in automotive exports this year, machinery under Chapter 84 (including servers and storage units) has surged over 40%, driven by the AI boom in the US.
- This demand, linked to digital infrastructure construction, has elevated machinery to the top of Mexico’s export ranking and is expected to continue growing in line with US investment.
Shifting Supply Chains and T-MEC Negotiations
The realignment extends beyond the northern border; it also rewrites supply chains heading to Asia. While China’s share had stabilized around 20%, the arrival of goods from Vietnam and Taiwan has accelerated, with their participation doubling to roughly 3% and 5%, respectively.
Most of this flow consists of machinery and transportation equipment, critical for manufacturing expansion and now for fulfilling AI-related orders. However, much of these non-regional links is under scrutiny. There’s a risk that President Trump might tighten tariffs on products whose components aren’t regionally sourced.
T-MEC and its Implications
The backdrop is the negotiations to extend the T-MEC. Oxford Economics believes Mexico is likely to concede on key points to ensure the agreement’s continuity, focusing on raising regional content in exports and providing greater US company access to public procurement with clear legal guarantees.
- This agenda clashes with elements of Mexico’s judicial reform, granting more control to the ruling party over non-arbitral tribunals, creating ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
- Despite this, the base scenario is continuity. Mexican exports and manufacturing will maintain their trajectory, though with different sectoral winners and losers.
The relative big loser would be the automotive industry due to tariffs, stricter rules of origin, and uncertainty over non-regional inputs. Nevertheless, investor appetite seems to hold. Oxford Economics reports robust reinversion of profits through Q2, indicating companies bet on a favorable resolution and their adaptability to new rules.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is driving Mexican exports upward? The US’s demand for tariff-free machinery, particularly related to data processing and storage for computing centers, is driving Mexican exports upwards.
- How has the AI boom in the US impacted Mexican exports? The surge in US AI investment has contributed to a 1.3% GDP growth in the US and has elevated machinery exports in Mexico by over 40%.
- What are the implications of T-MEC negotiations for Mexican exports? Mexico is likely to concede on key points in T-MEC negotiations to ensure the agreement’s continuity, which may result in different sectoral winners and losers. Regulatory uncertainty persists due to Mexico’s judicial reform granting more control to the ruling party over non-arbitral tribunals.
