From ChatGPT’s Dominance to Open Competition
The race for leadership in artificial intelligence (AI) has accelerated once again. The launch of Gemini 3, Google’s new model, not only narrowed the gap with ChatGPT but also put OpenAI under pressure to react swiftly in an increasingly competitive market.
Since 2022, OpenAI had set the pace for generative AI with ChatGPT, a breakthrough that temporarily overshadowed Alphabet (Google’s parent company), previously considered the sector’s leader. However, this dominance began to erode.
In November, Google unveiled Gemini 3, a model that surpassed ChatGPT in certain areas during standard tests. This move triggered alarms at OpenAI, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly declaring an “internal Red Alert,” urging teams to focus almost exclusively on ChatGPT development while sidelining other products, as per reports cited by The Wall Street Journal.
Today, ChatGPT boasts over 800 million weekly users, according to Altman. Meanwhile, Gemini reaches more than 650 million monthly users, as per Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO. He also highlights that over 70% of Google Cloud customers already utilize its AI solutions.
The Financial Challenge for OpenAI
While Google diversifies its revenue streams, OpenAI faces a critical challenge: profitability. The company primarily relies on subscriptions and agreements with companies integrating its models, alongside support from Microsoft, its main investor.
Despite this, OpenAI is not profitable. Estimates shared with investors suggest the company won’t generate profits until 2030. An HSBC analysis, cited by Financial Times, warns that even if revenues reach $21.3 billion by then, costs could exceed this figure, resulting in losses over $7 billion.
According to Cox, OpenAI’s significant challenge is building a sustainable business model capable of supporting one billion weekly users, which is unlikely to be achieved solely through subscriptions.
China Enters with Low Prices and Global Pressure
The competition between the US is further complicated by China, which is advancing rapidly. Companies like Baidu have introduced models such as DeepSeek, claiming to match the performance of GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro while betting on extremely low prices to gain ground in Western markets.
The warning is not minor. Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently noted that China is only “nanoseconds behind” the US in AI development, which could shift the global balance of power in the sector.
Rather than replacing each other, these systems are likely to coexist. Greater AI availability will lead to more applications, expanding a market that remains open and transforming.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current state of AI competition between OpenAI and Google? The race has intensified with Google’s Gemini 3 narrowing the gap and putting OpenAI under pressure to react swiftly in a competitive market.
- How have user numbers evolved for ChatGPT and Gemini? ChatGPT has over 800 million weekly users, while Gemini reaches more than 650 million monthly users.
- What financial challenges does OpenAI face? OpenAI struggles with profitability, relying on subscriptions and agreements while awaiting potential profits by 2030. An HSBC analysis suggests that even with $21.3 billion in revenue, costs could exceed this figure, resulting in significant losses.
- How is China impacting the global AI landscape? Chinese companies like Baidu are rapidly advancing with low-priced AI models, potentially shifting the global balance of power in the sector.
