Introduction to Argentina’s Economic Performance
Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) released the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) for February, showing a 5.7% annual increase. This growth follows four consecutive monthly increases but indicates a slowdown from January’s 6.7% rise.
Government Reaction and Expectations
Argentina’s Economy Minister, Luis “Toto” Caputo, celebrated the data on Twitter, highlighting that it reached the highest level in the deseasonalized series since June 2022 and that the trend has been positive for eleven consecutive months.
The government anticipated that the figure would reflect the upward trend in industrial activity, which has been positive for four consecutive months.
Sectoral Analysis
Of the eleven sectors that make up the EMAE, ten showed increases in February compared to the same month last year. Notable sectors include Financial Intermediation (30.2% ia) and Fishing (28.3% ia).
Financial Intermediation (30.2% ia) had the most significant positive impact on the annual variation of the EMAE, followed by Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair (7.4% ia) and Manufacturing Industry (5% ia).
However, four sectors experienced declines in the annual comparison. These include Other Community, Social, and Personal Service Activities (-2.6% ia) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-1.4% ia). These sectors, along with Public Administration and Defense; Compulsory Social Security Affiliation (-1.2% ia), reduced the annual growth of the EMAE by 0.17 percentage points.
In January 2025, the EMAE showed a 6.5% annual increase and a 0.6% rise compared to December.
Sectoral Performance in January
Ten sectors registered increases in January compared to the same month last year. Notable sectors include Financial Intermediation (25.7% ia) and Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair (11.3% ia).
Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair (11.3% ia) had the most significant positive impact on the annual variation of the EMAE, followed by Financial Intermediation (25.7% ia) and Manufacturing Industry (6.0% ia).
However, five sectors experienced declines in the annual comparison. These include Fishing (-3.8% ia) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-2.8% ia). Public Administration and Defense, Compulsory Social Security Affiliation (-1.7% ia) had the most significant negative impact, reducing the annual growth of the EMAE by 0.22 percentage points along with the previous two sectors.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the EMAE? The Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica (EMAE) is a monthly economic activity estimator released by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC).
- What does the recent growth indicate? The 5.7% annual growth in February shows a slowdown from January’s 6.7%, despite being positive compared to the same month last year (0.8% vs 0.6%).
- Which sectors contributed most to the growth? Financial Intermediation (30.2% ia) and Wholesale and Retail Trade and Repair (7.4% ia) had the most significant positive impact on the annual variation of the EMAE.
- Which sectors experienced declines? Other Community, Social, and Personal Service Activities (-2.6% ia) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-1.4% ia) were among those that declined in the annual comparison.
