Overview
The fourth quarter of the year kicks off with crucial economic information being released in Mexico regarding remittances, economic expectations, fixed investment, and private consumption. In the United States, focus will be on labor market reports and unemployment data.
Monday, September 29: Unemployment Rate
Mexico:
- National Employment and Occupation Survey (August)
The week begins with the National Education and Employment Survey, conducted by INEGI. This study provides an overview of the labor market and educational levels in Mexico, offering insights into productivity, human capital, and consumption expectations—all crucial for economic growth and national public policy.
Tuesday, September 30: Government Securities Auction
Mexico:
- Results of the government securities auction by Banco de Mexico
- Consumer Confidence Index (September)
- JOLTS Job Openings Survey (August)
- Remittances from abroad (August)
- Private sector expectations survey in Mexico (September)
- Monthly Business Opinion Survey in Mexico (September)
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the US (September)
- Manufacturing PMI in the US (September)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US (September)
- Crude oil inventories by OECD in the US
- Inflation in the Eurozone (September)
- Light Vehicle Industry Registration (September)
- New unemployment insurance claims in the US (weekly)
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation Index (July)
- Private Consumption Index (July)
- Cyclical Indicators System (July)
- Non-Farm Payrolls (September)
- Unemployment Rate (September)
- Average hourly earnings in the US (September)
- Services PMI in the US (September)
- Non-Manufacturing PMI by ISM in the US (September)
United States:
On Tuesday, the results of Banco de Mexico’s government securities auction will be published. This report provides information on demand for Mexican public debt, requested interest rates by the market, and investor appetite. Its outcomes can help anticipate inflation expectations and the future direction of national monetary policy.
United States:
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, a key economic indicator, will be released. This report reflects household perceptions of their financial situation and the overall economy. High levels may indicate rising inflation, while weak numbers suggest economic slowdown.
Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be published, measuring job vacancies and labor turnover. Significant changes can signal wage pressures and adjustments in monetary policy.
Wednesday, October 1: Remittances
Mexico:
Midweek, expect the remittances data from abroad for August. Released by Banco de Mexico, these figures show the flow of money transfers made by Mexicans from other countries—primarily the US. They are a vital source of income for households and regional consumption, significantly impacting the Mexican economy.
The private sector expectations survey by Banco de Mexico will also be available. The survey summarizes analyst projections on inflation, exchange rates, and growth, which are useful for anticipating prices and investment decisions. Changes in expectations can signal adjustments to portfolios and economic trends.
The Monthly Business Opinion Survey, conducted by INEGI, will also be published. This survey measures business confidence and expectations regarding production, orders, and employment, providing insights into the manufacturing and construction & services cycles. It’s crucial for investment, inventories, and corporate hiring in the country.
United States:
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for September, released by the ADP Research Institute, will be a key reference. This report offers an early look at the private sector labor market before official payroll data is available. Surprising changes can affect bond yields, the dollar, and interest rate expectations.
Thursday, October 2: Automotive Industry
Mexico:
On Thursday, expect the publication of the light vehicle industry registration report by INEGI. Rising sales to the public reflect consumer durable goods purchases, credit access, and income. It serves as a gauge for supply chains and domestic production, making it relevant to nearshoring trends.
United States:
The weekly new unemployment insurance claims figure, reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, will be released. This series measures layoffs and hirings. Increases suggest labor market cooling, while decreases imply resilience. The indicator influences wage expectations, consumption, and monetary policy stance.
Friday, October 3: Private Consumption
Mexico:
United States:
Mexico:
The Monthly Gross Fixed Capital Formation Index, published by INEGI, measures investments in machinery, equipment, and construction—key for productive capacity. Its performance reflects business confidence, project progress, and nearshoring’s impact on the national economy.
United States:
The highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report for September will be released. This report includes data on job creation, unemployment rates, and wages. Given its global influence on markets and economic outlooks, it’s closely followed by the Fed.
