Introduction
While the government boasts progress in health and infrastructure, the situation in security and social well-being is even more complex. Although official statistics claim a 25% reduction in daily homicides, from 86.9 to 64.9, independent evaluations correct this figure, showing a real reduction of 16.7% to 21.8%. This means that, while violence appears to decrease on PowerPoint presentations, the street reality remains with 57 to 65 daily homicides.
Security Achievements and Concerns
The administration has targeted criminal groups, resulting in 29,000 arrests, seizure of 200 tons of drugs, and nearly 15,000 confiscated weapons. However, an uncomfortable figure emerges: 199 police officers were killed in 2025, a 35% increase from the previous year. If security is measured by trust, it has decreased; and if by bodies, the numbers do not allow for celebration.
Social Spending and Public Debt
The social spending stands at 850 billion pesos, equivalent to 2.3% of the GDP, benefiting an estimated 32 million people. However, public debt has risen from 10 to 20 trillion pesos during the same period. Financing social programs through borrowing is a risky move, as it resembles electoral politics rather than genuine social policy.
Lack of Alignment with National Development Plan
Despite the significant social spending, there is little connection to the National Development Plan 2025-2030. The document, intended as a roadmap for the six-year term, remains largely unknown, unexplained, undiscussed, and unreflected in practical projects. The government appears to act without clear objectives or coordination, focusing mainly on maintaining the clientelism machine running smoothly.
Economic Stagnation and Social Dependency
Social programs, supporting nearly 20% of household income, sustain consumption but also deepen dependence on the state. Meanwhile, the economy barely grows at 1% annually. Claiming “well-being” under these conditions is like boasting that a sinking ship remains afloat while frantically bailing water with buckets.
The Risk of Unfulfilled Promises
The main risk of this approach is that if words do not translate into actions, Mexico will miss a crucial opportunity: transforming social spending into genuine economic development, i.e., improving people’s quality of life. Without investment, productivity, or strategy, the so-called “transformation” will remain merely a narrative.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What progress has been made in security and social well-being? A: While official statistics claim a 25% reduction in daily homicides, independent evaluations show a real decrease of 16.7% to 21.8%. Daily homicides still range from 57 to 65.
- Q: How does social spending compare to public debt? A: Social spending amounts to 850 billion pesos (2.3% of GDP), benefiting an estimated 32 million people. However, public debt has risen from 10 to 20 trillion pesos.
- Q: Is there alignment between social spending and the National Development Plan? A: There is little connection between social spending and the National Development Plan 2025-2030. The document remains largely unknown and unreflected in practical projects.
- Q: What is the state of the economy and people’s well-being? A: The economy grows at a mere 1% annually. Claiming “well-being” under these conditions is misleading, as it does not reflect genuine improvements in people’s quality of life.
