Background on the IMF and its Role
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that aims to promote global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, and provide resources to help member countries overcome economic challenges.
IMF’s Latest Growth Projections for Mexico
The IMF has maintained its growth outlook for Mexico at 1.5%, the same as in October, according to its recent update of expectations for the G-20.
This projection is slightly above the 0.6% growth rate estimated for Mexico’s GDP in 2025, as per the IMF’s forecasts.
IMF Projections vs. Market Expectations
The IMF’s projections are higher than those of the market, as indicated by a recent Citi survey. Financial experts anticipate a 0.3% growth rate for 2025 and 1.3% for this year.
IMF’s Explanation for Mexico’s Growth Outlook
During a remote press conference to unveil the G-20 expectations update, IMF Deputy Director of Economic Studies Petya Koeava explained that Mexico’s recovery is expected from a gradual monetary policy loosening and a broadly neutral fiscal policy.
Koeava acknowledged that the 2025 GDP forecast was revised throughout the year, incorporating the impact of tightened fiscal policy, monetary restraint levels, and “headwinds from trade tensions.” The GDP diagnosis is described as “relatively weak,” she emphasized.
The final 2025 GDP data is scheduled for release in mid-February, but an advance estimate will be available on January 30 from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
IMF’s Growth Projections for 2026 and Beyond
For the upcoming year, IMF economists anticipate a 2.1% growth rate for Mexico, which, if accurate, would be the highest in three years and surpass the country’s historical average growth of 1.8% from 2000 to 2019.
Geopolitical and Trade Tensions: The Greatest Risk for 2026
During the remote conference on updating expectations, IMF Economic Advisor Pierre Olivier Gourinchas reported that the organization expects a global growth rate of 3.3% for this year and 3.2% for 2027.
The 2026 growth rate projection has been revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points from the October estimate of 3.1%. The forecast for the following year remains unchanged.
IMF Chief Economist acknowledged that the primary global risk is an escalation of geopolitical tensions accompanied by higher tariffs.
The world outlook for 2026 includes the expectation that the United States will register a 2.4% growth rate for this year, higher than the 2.1% estimated by the IMF in the fall and also greater than the expected growth rate for 2025, which was calculated at 2.1%.
For 2027, the IMF anticipates a US GDP growth rate of 2%, which, if accurate, would be the lowest in four years and includes a downward adjustment of one-tenth from the fall estimate.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the IMF’s current growth outlook for Mexico? The IMF maintains its growth outlook for Mexico at 1.5%.
- How does the IMF’s projection compare to market expectations? The IMF’s projections are higher than those of the market, as indicated by a recent Citi survey.
- What factors contribute to Mexico’s growth outlook according to the IMF? The IMF expects Mexico’s recovery from gradual monetary policy loosening and a broadly neutral fiscal policy.
- What are the primary global risks for 2026, according to the IMF? The greatest risk is an escalation of geopolitical tensions accompanied by higher tariffs.
- What are the IMF’s growth projections for 2026 and beyond? The IMF expects a 2.1% growth rate for Mexico in the upcoming year, surpassing its historical average. For 2026, it anticipates a global growth rate of 3.3%, while for 2027, it projects 3.2%.
