Introduction
People are asking, “Why is the US dollar falling?” I’ll explain. Sometimes, certain months can dampen emotions, and January 2026 is one of them. It seems the world might be quite dull for business, with Pinfra, a company you may not know, gaining the most value. Have you noticed?
Pinfra’s Monotonous Business Boosts Mexican Stock Market
Pinfra collects tolls at toll booths. Is there a more monotonous business? For whatever reason, this activity has lifted the Mexican stock market, making it more profitable than the Standard & Poor’s index on Wall Street so far in 2026.
Pinfra’s stocks rose nearly 4% yesterday, driving the Mexican stock market upward. The index has gained almost 7% since the start of this young year.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen by 1.5% during the same period.
I don’t mean to criticize Pinfra’s efficient team; I merely highlight that, in the age of artificial intelligence, one might expect futuristic, flying car highways instead of the nearly unchanged toll booth business.
However, this is the world we live in since it became stuck with outdated ideas. Leaders focus more on closing their country’s curtains than opening paths.
The Current Global Economic Landscape
In the era of President Donald Trump and Morena, leaders convinced their voters that century-old oil and railroad activities represent the path to widespread prosperity.
We will regain our senses eventually; until then, the largest investment fund manager in the US proposed and people responded. Vanguard suggested temporarily returning to the mundane, low-risk, high-security government bond market (Cetes in Mexico).
These bonds offer an annual return close to 7%, though modest, it’s better than the US Treasury bonds’ approximate 4% return.
This explains the dollar’s decline. Many exchange dollars for pesos, earning better returns with the Mexican currency or the Brazilian real, which also offer annual rates up to 15%.
If interest in dollar investments drops, fewer people will buy the currency, leading to a consistent depreciation of the greenback, which traded around 17.35 pesos per unit yesterday.
Mexico’s and the US Economies: A Tale of Two Nations
Mexico remains stuck in a 1990s economy based on manufacturing products for other countries, earning wages and local rent as income for many but prosperity for the few. The old machine still functions, albeit barely.
In the US, the story isn’t much different. The nation boasts tech companies driving investment mountains: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet… along with banks acting as intermediaries for JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, or BofA’s benefit.
However, it’s a party for the few, and they’re starting to turn on the lights. Even fewer can genuinely invest in the future, like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, or Blue Origin, whose shares aren’t listed on any stock exchange and can only be purchased by small clubs of ultra-wealthy individuals worldwide.
That’s why those managing capital are turning back to what they once overlooked when excited about AI: mundane government bonds or investments in emerging countries’ companies like Pinfra, mining giants Peñoles and Grupo México, or airport managers Asur and OMA—businesses that aren’t going away anytime soon.
Boring, yet relatively secure.
Key Questions and Answers
- Why is the US dollar falling? Many are exchanging dollars for pesos, earning better returns with the Mexican currency or the Brazilian real, causing a consistent depreciation of the greenback.
- What is Pinfra, and why is its business important? Pinfra collects tolls at toll booths, a seemingly monotonous business that has unexpectedly boosted Mexico’s stock market.
- How do government bonds (Cetes) factor into this situation? Vanguard, a large investment fund manager, proposed temporarily returning to low-risk, high-security government bonds due to waning interest in dollar investments.
- What does this mean for the average investor? Investors can put their savings into nearly 7% annual return Cetes, even at a bank branch, which is better than US Treasury bonds’ approximate 4% return.
