Introduction
Since December 2018, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador began his term, Mexico’s prison population has increased by approximately 30%, rising from 197,988 to 256,127 inmates by December 2025. This growth has led to an increase in the number of overcrowded prisons, from 12 to 18 states during the same period.
Overpopulation Details
According to the National Penitentiary Statistics Monthly Information Bulletin, the most critical overpopulation levels are observed in Nayarit (2,248 excess prisoners, 191.65% above capacity), the State of Mexico (22,868 excess prisoners, 157.92%), Morelos (2,145 excess prisoners, 104.79%), Sonora (7,562 excess prisoners, 94.67%), and Durango (2,133 excess prisoners, 92.94%).
- Quintana Roo: 2,060 excess prisoners (76.44%)
- Chiapas: 2,446 excess prisoners (53.06%)
- Hidalgo: 1,790 excess prisoners (44.56%)
- San Luis Potosí: 1,357 excess prisoners (42.01%)
- Coahuila de Zaragoza: 1,605 excess prisoners (41%)
- Veracruz: 1,783 excess prisoners (25.67%)
- Aguascalientes: 432 excess prisoners (23.89%)
- Tabasco: 710 excess prisoners (15.33%)
- Tlaxcala: 152 excess prisoners (13.93%)
- Chihuahua: 1,108 excess prisoners (12.84%)
- Zacatecas: 142 excess prisoners (5.88%)
- Guerrero: 185 excess prisoners (4.83%)
- Jalisco: 228 excess prisoners (1.67%)
Insufficient Capacity Despite Expansion
Between 2018 and 2025, 22 states increased prison capacity: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Ciudad de México, Coahuila de Zaragoza, Durango, Estado de México, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Michoacán de Ocampo, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Querétaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Tabasco, Tlaxcala, and Yucatán. However, this expansion was insufficient to accommodate the growing number of inmates in some cases.
Currently, 12 states face overpopulation: Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Estado de México, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Tabasco, and Tlaxcala.
Growth in Pre-Trial Detainees
By 2025, 133,214 individuals were unsentenced, accounting for 52.01% of the total prison population. In 2018, there were 60,653 unsentenced individuals, which was 30.63% of the total. This represents an increase of over 72,500 unsentenced individuals in seven years, with a more than 21 percentage point increase.
Reasons Behind the Increase
The rise in Mexico’s prison population over the past few years is primarily due to institutional decisions, such as increased use of preventive detention, and external factors like pressure from the U.S. government for concrete security results.
- Institutional Decisions: The López Obrador administration has strengthened preventive detention, a cautelary measure for those accused of serious crimes.
- International Pressure: The U.S. government has pushed Mexico to demonstrate progress in security, narcotics control, and fentanyl/migration management.
Asael Nuche, spokesperson for Causa en Común, explained that the 2011 constitutional reform limiting preventive detention was reversed after López Obrador’s arrival. He also highlighted the international context, where Mexico faces pressure to show tangible security results.
Javier Oliva Posada, a UNAM political sciences faculty member, noted that security-focused programs in Michoacán and Sinaloa led to thousands of arrests. He pointed out that this approach contrasts with the security policy during López Obrador’s tenure.
Regarding the high number of unsentenced individuals, Oliva Posada stated that this issue is closely tied to structural weaknesses in Mexico’s justice system, particularly the performance of public prosecutors.
The growth in penitentiary infrastructure across various states is attributed to population increase and the diversification of crimes, according to the analyst.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What caused the surge in Mexico’s prison population? A: The increase is primarily due to institutional decisions, such as the increased use of preventive detention, and external factors like pressure from the U.S. government for concrete security results.
- Q: How many states currently face overpopulation? A: Twelve states are experiencing prison overpopulation: Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Estado de México, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Tabasco, and Tlaxcala.
- Q: What is the percentage of unsentenced individuals in Mexico’s prison population? A: As of 2025, 52.01% of Mexico’s prison population consists of unsentenced individuals.
- Q: How has the justice system contributed to this situation? A: Structural weaknesses in Mexico’s justice system, particularly the performance of public prosecutors, have played a significant role in this issue.
