FIRST: The Iran-Israel Conflict
FIRST. Allow me a nearly novel-like digression. Let’s start with the premise that there is an explosive situation in what is called the Middle East. Israel fears Iran’s advancement of its nuclear program. Meanwhile, as a backdrop, a brutal attack on the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip is taking place, with the indifferent gaze of the world.
Israel decides to attack Iran but informs Donald Trump first, who gives the green light. Cleverly, “someone” from the U.S. government informs the Iranian government of the impending attack, allowing them to partially protect their nuclear sites and safeguard enriched uranium. Subsequently, for several days, both nations exchange a large number of missiles and bombs. Remember that beforehand, Trump had suggested that perhaps Iran and Israel should clash for a few days.
Keep in mind that we are in a digression. During the attacks, experts note that both sides are exercising restraint. At a certain point, Trump decides to precisely target Iran’s nuclear facilities. Interestingly, another “friendly voice” from the White House warns Iran. The U.S. attacks cause limited damage; Israel celebrates, and Iran threatens to retaliate against Trump. Then, Iran attacks U.S. military bases in Qatar but warns the U.S. beforehand. The damage is minimal. By this time, Wall Street knows what’s happening, and markets stabilize.
Trump orders an end to the conflict, and it is over. Both Israel and Iran declare victory and exalt nationalism. Meanwhile, Trump demonstrates that he is the world’s free nations’ great leader, even comparing the attacks on Iran to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The explosive situation in the Middle East has slightly eased. Everyone lost, except Trump. The recent “war” can be summarized in the words of the White House occupant: “They’ve had a great fight, like two kids in the schoolyard. They fight like mad, you can’t stop them. Let them fight for a couple of minutes, then it’s easy to stop them.”
SECOND: Pressure on NATO Allies
Since before taking office, Trump insists to his European allies on the need to increase their contributions to NATO and take more responsibility. This is a message they’ve heard before during his first term, but this time it’s different. The threat of tariffs, mutual sympathy between Putin and Trump, and the phantom of Russia invading Europe frighten them.
Lord Hasting Lionel Ismay, NATO’s first secretary, summarized the organization’s role as a way to “keep the Americans in, keep the Germans down, and the Russians out.” However, it’s no longer 1949; the Russia of then no longer exists and stopped being “communist”; Germany is Europe’s big brother, and the U.S. is no longer reliable. Confused European leaders complain about Washington’s demands, but gradually they bend to an embarrassing and absurd agreement.
On June 25 of this year, the 32 NATO member states met in The Hague and agreed to increase their defense budgets to 5% of their respective GDPs until 2035. The cherry on top was added by the controversial Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, who argued that providing that percentage would compromise the Welfare State and economic growth in Spain. So, he only committed to 2.1% of his GDP. Trump didn’t stay silent and threatened to force Spain to double its contribution.
Trump called the agreement “a great victory,” but it’s not for Europeans because terrorism cannot be contained this way, and Russia doesn’t threaten Europe. So, it’s only a great victory for the U.S. president. If anyone doubts Europe’s degree of humiliation, they should see how Dutch Prime Minister Max Rutte referred to Trump regarding the Iran-Israel war: “And sometimes ‘daddy’ needs to use a strong language to stop it.”
THIRD: Tensions with Mexico
THIRD. That “daddy” is the one who sends his officials to declare Mexico an adversary (Pam Bondi) and point out that drug cartels are money-laundering through stockbrokerages (Vector) and banks (CIBanco e Intercam). Sheinbaum mounts a timid defense while building the legal framework for establishing an authoritarian state with police-military undertones.
Daddy and mommy aren’t behaving well.
