Introduction
The growth of Mexico’s restaurant industry is being revised downwards. Initially, at the start of 2025, the Cámara Nacional de la Industria de Restaurantes y Alimentos Condimentados (CANIRAC) anticipated annual growth between 5.5% and 6%. However, the current expectation is more cautious: closing 2025 with an advance of around 4%.
Key Challenges
Claudia Ramírez del Palacio, the CEO of CANIRAC, confirmed this in an interview with Bistronomie de El Economista. “So far, we have seen moderate growth. We calculate an accumulated advance of between 2% and 2.5% by the end of the first half of the year,” she explained.
Factors such as inflation –which reached 4.4% in May, its highest level in six months–, the rising costs of supplies like meats and poultry, and increased rents and software operational expenses have impacted the sector’s margins.
“Many restaurant owners have had to absorb these costs without passing them on to the end consumer,” Ramírez del Palacio pointed out.
First Half of the Year: Key Dates
Despite difficulties, dates like February 14 (Mother’s Day), Easter, and vacation bridges have helped sustain the industry’s dynamism. “Regions like Puebla, Querétaro, Baja California, and Mexico City have seen growth above average, partly due to the activation of festivals or tourism appeal,” detailed the president.
In fact, gastronomic tourism has solidified as one of the main sources of economic spill, with estimates suggesting up to 30% of a tourist’s expenditure goes to restaurants.
Second Half of the Year: Boost from High Season
CANIRAC anticipates that the second half of the year, with events like Day of the Dead (November 15), Formula 1, and the Christmas season, will impulse sector income.
Moreover, recent star deliveries and mentions in the Guía Michelin, along with Mexico’s positioning in lists like The World’s 50 Best Restaurants, solidify the country as a world-class culinary destination. “Not only does it impact awarded restaurants, but also those offering iconic dishes from the country,” Ramírez noted.
Security: An Obstacle to Balanced Growth
Although the overall sector outlook is optimistic, insecurity remains a significant challenge in some regions of the country. Claudia Ramírez del Palacio, CANIRAC’s CEO, stated that growth hasn’t been uniform due to the particular conditions of certain states.
“Growth may vary in some states affected by numerous issues, primarily the security situation, which has faced different challenges,” she affirmed. In areas with higher crime rates, some restaurants have had to adjust hours, reinforce measures, or halt expansion plans, directly impacting operational margins and customer attraction.
This contrasts with consolidated tourist destinations where stability allows for better results and sustained growth. For CANIRAC, addressing security is crucial for the sector’s balanced development across the country.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What was the initial growth projection for Mexico’s restaurant industry in 2025? A: Between 5.5% and 6%
- Q: What factors are impacting the restaurant industry’s growth? A: Inflation, rising costs of supplies like meats and poultry, increased rents, and software operational expenses.
- Q: What dates and events are expected to boost the restaurant industry in the second half of 2025? A: Day of the Dead (November 15), Formula 1, and Christmas season.
- Q: How has insecurity affected the restaurant industry’s growth? A: In regions with higher crime rates, restaurants have had to adjust operations and expansion plans, impacting their margins and customer attraction.
- Q: What is the revised growth projection for Mexico’s restaurant industry in 2025? A: Around 4%, slightly below initial plans.
