Introduction
In the face of ongoing economic uncertainty, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) has revised its growth projections downward for the region, with Mexico experiencing the lowest growth rate this year, second only to Venezuela.
CEPAL’s Revised Growth Projections
In the document “Economic Projections for Latin America and the Caribbean,” CEPAL projected a mere 0.3% growth for Mexico in 2025, down from the previously estimated 1.2%.
Mexico’s Economic Performance
With this revision, Mexico ranks as the second-worst performing economy in the region, trailing only Venezuela, which is estimated to contract by 1.5%.
Alignment with Other Organizations
CEPAL joins other institutions that have reduced their growth projections for Mexico in 2025. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its projection to a contraction of 0.3%, while the World Bank anticipates zero growth for this year.
Contrasting Optimistic Government Projections
These projections contrast sharply with the optimistic outlook maintained by the government of Claudia Sheinbaum. According to Mexico’s Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), the country is expected to grow between 1.5% and 2.3% in 2025.
Regional Economic Challenges
Without specifying the details of Mexico’s reduction, CEPAL highlighted that the region as a whole faces a complex international scenario marked by uncertainty, primarily due to U.S. tariffs.
“The announcements regarding tariffs by the United States not only have direct effects on the region’s exports to that economy but also indirect effects through increased volatility in international financial markets, causing significant fluctuations in stock and bond markets. This has clear implications for asset performance and interest rates in the United States and major global financial markets,” explained CEPAL.
The new growth projection for the region stands at 2%, lower than the previously estimated 2.4%.
“The announcements and ensuing geoeconomic confrontation have increased the risk of severe disruptions in global production chains and international trade flows. All these factors have led to a downward revision of growth prospects at the global level, particularly among Mexico’s main trading partners: the United States and China,” CEPAL asserted.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is CEPAL? The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) is a United Nations regional commission that promotes economic cooperation and sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Why did CEPAL lower Mexico’s growth projection? CEPAL cited increased economic uncertainty, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and their indirect effects on international financial markets.
- How do CEPAL’s projections compare to those of other organizations? Other institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, have also revised their growth projections downward for Mexico in 2025.
- What is the current growth projection for Mexico according to CEPAL? CEPAL projects a mere 0.3% growth for Mexico in 2025.
- What are the main trading partners of the region facing growth challenges? The United States and China, Mexico’s main trading partners, are experiencing growth challenges, according to CEPAL.
