Background on the Relevant Person and Context
The Mexican economy’s growth is a critical topic for investors, businesses, and the general public. Understanding the expectations and forecasts from financial institutions like Citi is essential for planning and decision-making. Claudia Sheinbaum, the current head of Mexico City’s government, is relevant here as her administration will present its first budget proposal for the federal government on September 8, 2023. This event will likely influence economic expectations and policies.
Market Expectations for Mexico’s GDP Growth
According to a recent Citi survey, the market anticipates that Mexico’s GDP will grow by 1.4% in the upcoming year, which remains unchanged from last month’s projection.
This forecast is lower than the federal government’s estimate in its preliminary economic policy criteria, which stood at a midpoint of 1.9% (ranging from 1.5% to 2.5%) in April.
Diverse Forecasts from Financial Institutions
The Citi survey reveals that only three groups consulted predict the Mexican GDP could be between 0% and 0.9%. BNP Paribas has the lowest forecast at 0.5%, while Barclays holds the highest prediction at 2%.
Adjustments in Economic Activity Forecasts
There has been a consistent upward adjustment in the average forecast for economic performance over the past two quinquennial periods, now placing them at 0.5%.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current market expectation for Mexico’s GDP growth in 2026?
A: The market anticipates a growth rate of 1.4% for Mexico’s GDP in the upcoming year, according to a recent Citi survey.
- Q: How does this forecast compare to the federal government’s estimate?
A: The market’s 1.4% forecast is lower than the federal government’s midpoint estimate of 1.9% (ranging from 1.5% to 2.5%) presented in April’s preliminary economic policy criteria.
- Q: What are the diverse forecasts from financial institutions regarding Mexico’s GDP growth?
A: Only three groups consulted predict the Mexican GDP could be between 0% and 0.9%. BNP Paribas has the lowest forecast at 0.5%, while Barclays holds the highest prediction at 2%.
- Q: How have economic activity forecasts changed recently?
A: There has been a consistent upward adjustment in the average forecast for economic performance over the past two quinquennial periods, now placing them at 0.5%.
