Introduction to Mexico’s Illegal Firearms Market
Mexico faces a flourishing illegal firearms market, with over 200,000 illegally imported weapons acquired annually by organized crime groups and common criminals, primarily from the United States. According to Sergio Aguayo Quezada, an El Colegio de México researcher, between 2005 and 2024, approximately three million nine hundred thousand illegal firearms entered Mexico. However, federal authorities secured only 8.64% of these weapons.
The Impact of Firearms on Violence in Mexico
The prosperity of this illegal market is partly explained by the fact that seven out of ten homicides in Mexico are committed with firearms. Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), systematized by El Colegio de México’s Violence and Peace Seminar, supports this claim.
- In 2024, there were 27,794 deaths due to homicide, with 20,268 (72.92%) being firearm-related, the highest percentage in history.
- In 2001, during Vicente Fox’s presidency, 51.68% of homicides were firearm-related. By 2006, this figure rose to 54.86%.
- Under Felipe Calderón’s presidency, the percentage increased to 56.60% in 2007 and reached 70.52% by 2010.
- Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency saw a decrease to 62.44% in 2013, but it rose again to 70.25% by 2018.
- Under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency, the percentage started at 70.39% in 2019 and increased to 71.60% by 2023.
Estimating the Scale of Illegal Firearms Trafficking
The question remains: how many firearms are sold in Mexico? According to various sources, the annual number of illegally trafficked firearms ranges from 200,000 to 873,000.
- The National Public Security Strategy under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government suggests around 200,000 firearms enter Mexico annually.
- “El camino de las armas: Estimación del tráfico de armas de fuego entre Estados Unidos y México” (2013) by the Trans-border Institute at the University of San Diego estimates 253,000 firearms annually between 2010 and 2012.
- In August 2021, the Mexican government’s demand against U.S. firearm manufacturers estimated annual sales of 873,000 firearms.
The Colmex analysis, based on the Small Arms Survey associated with IHEID in Switzerland, estimates that by the end of 2017, Mexico possessed a total of 16.8 million firearms (legal and illegal) in civilian hands. Subtracting 3,425,181 registered firearms from 2000 to 2017 leaves an estimated 13,374,819 illegal firearms in civilian possession.
Firearm Seizures by Mexican Authorities
Data from the Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional, obtained through Mexico’s National Transparency Platform (now operated by INAI), reveals that from 2019 to October 2024, the army seized 41,828 firearms and 3,239 grenades. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, they secured 5,657 firearms and 345 grenades. In 2023, they confiscated 9,395 firearms and 698 grenades.
According to official data systematized by El Colegio de México’s Violence and Peace Seminar, from 2005 to June 2024, authorities secured 337,067 firearms. During Felipe Calderón’s presidency (2007-2012), the most were seized, totaling 163,420. Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency (2019-June 2024) followed with 109,097 seizures, while Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency (2013-2018) saw 55,215 firearms confiscated.
The Ongoing Challenge of Firearms in Mexico
Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, an académico from the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), considers firearms a significant challenge, as no country can withstand the influx of over 200,000 new firearms annually.
He believes that no judicial reform or policing model can resolve the flood of firearms in Mexico. Pérez Ricart highlights that this illegal market has complex circuits and structures, with significant players benefiting from it.
With the U.S. government’s decision to classify Mexican drug trafficking organizations as terrorists, Pérez Ricart expects increased visibility of firearm suppliers supporting these criminal organizations.
“Donald Trump’s government will have to perform rhetorical acrobatics to avoid including the 77,803 firearm vendors in the U.S., which supply 70% of the firearms used by criminal organizations in Mexico,” Pérez Ricart explains.
He emphasizes that this figure is equivalent to the number of McDonald’s, Burger King, Subway, and Wendy’s restaurants in the U.S., or five times the number of Starbucks.
Pérez Ricart points out that 25 armory stores in Yuma, Arizona are responsible for selling 591 firearms to Mexico between 2015 and 2025, while Schooter’s Sport Center in Wisconsin sold over $600,000 worth of Barrett rifles in.50 caliber that ended up with Mexican cartel members.
